Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 7.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 92¢ · $737 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$736.86
-$83.8
72.4¢ → 91.5¢
+26% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+58 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 71¢ | $281.15 | $332.63 | +$51.48 | 51% 2128-2072 (4200) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 76.8¢ | $145.12 | $172.94 | +$27.81 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $71 | $84 | +$13 | 53% 6404-5641 (12045) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR | Overavg 28.6¢ | $258.82 | $76.85 | -$181.97 | 23% 62-205 (267) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $44.56 | $53.47 | +$8.91 | 48% 703-766 (1469) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $10.92 | $6.72 | -$4.2 | 49% 1103-1157 (2260) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $5.33 | $5.93 | +$0.59 | 36% 577-1014 (1591) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $3.76 | $4.32 | +$0.57 | 29% 105-255 (360) |
Invested
$281.15
Value
$332.63
PnL
+$51.48
Record
51%
2128-2072 (4200)
Invested
$145.12
Value
$172.94
PnL
+$27.81
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
Invested
$71
Value
$84
PnL
+$13
Record
53%
6404-5641 (12045)
Invested
$258.82
Value
$76.85
PnL
-$181.97
Record
23%
62-205 (267)
poshposh<$100Invested
$44.56
Value
$53.47
PnL
+$8.91
Record
48%
703-766 (1469)
Invested
$10.92
Value
$6.72
PnL
-$4.2
Record
49%
1103-1157 (2260)
Invested
$5.33
Value
$5.93
PnL
+$0.59
Record
36%
577-1014 (1591)
Invested
$3.76
Value
$4.32
PnL
+$0.57
Record
29%
105-255 (360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.