Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 4.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 84¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Over84¢Under16¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$3.32

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 83.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,431

Combined PnL+$12.38

Under5 traders

Total Value$445.23

Total Shares2,705

Combined PnL-$15.7

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 83¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$11.39	52% 388-362 (750)
GO goldmynameCTR	Underavg 17¢	$414.8	$402.6	-$12.2	51% 27-26 (53)
PU purplegatto<$100	Overavg 83¢	$67.06	$67.47	+$0.4	68% 2613-1210 (3823)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 82.7¢	$58.7	$59.29	+$0.59	44% 177-221 (398)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$23.22	$20.64	-$2.58	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$16.51	$15.54	-$0.97	29% 105-255 (360)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 16.7¢	$3.36	$3.32	-$0.04	53% 1117-973 (2090)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$3.04	$3.14	+$0.1	51% 2763-2694 (5457)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,891.57

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$11.39

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

goldmynameCTR

Under

Invested

$414.8

Value

$402.6

PnL

-$12.2

Record

51%

27-26 (53)

purplegatto<$100

Over

Invested

$67.06

Value

$67.47

PnL

+$0.4

Record

68%

2613-1210 (3823)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$58.7

Value

$59.29

PnL

+$0.59

Record

44%

177-221 (398)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.22

Value

$20.64

PnL

-$2.58

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.51

Value

$15.54

PnL

-$0.97

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.14

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.