Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (68%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Avalanche vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 32¢ · $478 held · ended Nov 15

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$478.18

Combined PnL

$12.78

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 32¢

-34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$343.35

Total Shares668

Combined PnL+$8.07

Under3 traders

Total Value$134.83

Total Shares234

Combined PnL+$4.7

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 48¢	$158.49	$165.1	+$6.6	68% 2653-1240 (3893)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 59.9¢	$85.06	$88.04	+$2.98	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
TA taylorsversionCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$77.19	$79.6	+$2.41	53% 109-98 (207)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$48.96	$51	+$2.04	51% 628-592 (1220)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 49¢	$43.12	$44.88	+$1.76	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$24.9	$22.43	-$2.48	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 50.3¢	$43.34	$19.54	-$0.74	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$5.46	$5.69	+$0.23	37% 1155-1943 (3098)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 52¢	$1.95	$1.91	-$0.04	56% 566-451 (1017)

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$158.49

Value

$165.1

PnL

+$6.6

Record

68%

2653-1240 (3893)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$85.06

Value

$88.04

PnL

+$2.98

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

taylorsversionCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.19

Value

$79.6

PnL

+$2.41

Record

53%

109-98 (207)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.96

Value

$51

PnL

+$2.04

Record

51%

628-592 (1220)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$43.12

Value

$44.88

PnL

+$1.76

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.9

Value

$22.43

PnL

-$2.48

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.34

Value

$19.54

PnL

-$0.74

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.46

Value

$5.69

PnL

+$0.23

Record

37%

1155-1943 (3098)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$0.04

Record

56%

566-451 (1017)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 32%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.