Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Canadiens, while the market favors Avalanche (60%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (57%) · Canadiens at 40¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Canadiens
7
Canadiens 57%
$6.9K
$809.16
74.4¢ → 40¢
-46% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCanadiens at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoro | Avalancheavg 25.8¢ | $988.88 | $2.5K | +$1.5K | 38% 16-26 (42) |
 nigiri99 | Avalancheavg 25¢ | $766 | $1.9K | +$1.2K | 51% 628-592 (1220) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Canadiensavg 74.5¢ | $3.0K | $1.7K | $-1.3K | 56% 566-451 (1017) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Canadiensavg 74.4¢ | $1.2K | $701.25 | -$525.75 | 47% 3487-3859 (7346) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Avalancheavg 47.9¢ | $88.76 | $59.16 | -$4.79 | 49% 4276-4505 (8781) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Canadiensavg 63.7¢ | $26.41 | $17.62 | -$8.78 | 53% 2030-1802 (3832) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Canadiensavg 74.4¢ | $30.49 | $17.43 | -$13.06 | 49% 1751-1796 (3547) |
Invested
$988.88
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
38%
16-26 (42)
nigiri99Invested
$766
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
51%
628-592 (1220)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$2,980
Value
$1.7K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
56%
566-451 (1017)
Invested
$1,227
Value
$701.25
PnL
-$525.75
Record
47%
3487-3859 (7346)
Invested
$88.76
Value
$59.16
PnL
-$4.79
Record
49%
4276-4505 (8781)
Invested
$26.41
Value
$17.62
PnL
-$8.78
Record
53%
2030-1802 (3832)
Invested
$30.49
Value
$17.43
PnL
-$13.06
Record
49%
1751-1796 (3547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.