Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hurricanes vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 31¢ · $568 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$567.5
-$9.98
30.9¢ → 30.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 31¢ | $324.57 | $319.34 | -$5.24 | 51% 327-309 (636) |
PU purplegattoCTR | Overavg 31¢ | $119.35 | $113.57 | -$5.78 | 68% 2604-1201 (3805) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 70.4¢ | $66.85 | $66.98 | +$0.13 | 42% 145-199 (344) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $30.75 | $30.97 | +$0.22 | 51% 2462-2334 (4796) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $11.96 | $12.22 | +$0.26 | 53% 852-745 (1597) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $10.35 | $10.58 | +$0.22 | 48% 1017-1087 (2104) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $10.15 | $10.33 | +$0.17 | 54% 258-216 (474) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $3.53 | +$0.02 | 50% 1178-1197 (2375) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$324.57
Value
$319.34
PnL
-$5.24
Record
51%
327-309 (636)
Invested
$119.35
Value
$113.57
PnL
-$5.78
Record
68%
2604-1201 (3805)
Invested
$66.85
Value
$66.98
PnL
+$0.13
Record
42%
145-199 (344)
Invested
$30.75
Value
$30.97
PnL
+$0.22
Record
51%
2462-2334 (4796)
Invested
$11.96
Value
$12.22
PnL
+$0.26
Record
53%
852-745 (1597)
Invested
$10.35
Value
$10.58
PnL
+$0.22
Record
48%
1017-1087 (2104)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$10.15
Value
$10.33
PnL
+$0.17
Record
54%
258-216 (474)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.53
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
1178-1197 (2375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.