Hurricanes vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5

6 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Over (24%) · Over at 51¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 12

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 24%

Total Value

$21.2K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 25 top traders (24%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares17,815

Combined PnL-$209.22

Under19 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares18,252

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Over — 24%Under — 76%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

26% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 22

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DaBossHogg	Overavg 51.4¢	$8.7K	$8.6K	-$74.13	8% 3-36 (39)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 49¢	$3.7K	$4.9K	+$1.2K	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 48¢	$3.0K	$3.8K	+$780.61	37% 37-62 (99)
BA banepirCTR	Underavg 50¢	$750	$975	+$225	— 10-8 (18)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$457.77	$604.22	+$146.45	54% 278-237 (515)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 48.4¢	$893.28	$533.9	+$220.41	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 50¢	$331.56	$420	+$88.44	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$245	$325	+$80	52% 773-714 (1487)
RN1CTR	Underavg 48¢	$207.23	$280.62	+$73.39	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
nigiri99	Overavg 50¢	$221.5	$150.62	-$70.88	52% 352-329 (681)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 50¢	$193.5	$135.45	-$58.05	44% 165-210 (375)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 58¢	$102.38	$114.74	+$12.36	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$48.23	$63.73	+$15.5	55% 210-170 (380)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$53.46	$55.35	+$4.83	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$29.76	$38.69	+$8.93	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$27.42	$36.75	+$9.33	54% 994-856 (1850)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$24.5	$32.5	+$8	54% 455-382 (837)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$10.78	$14.3	+$3.52	27% 52-141 (193)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$11.6	$13	+$1.4	37% 538-932 (1470)
GA Gaditima<$100	Overavg 51¢	$15.28	$10.19	-$5.09	46% 161-187 (348)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.25	+$0.35	44% 389-495 (884)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$1.75	-$0.75	66% 1779-919 (2698)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$1	$1.3	+$0.3	41% 26-37 (63)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$0.96	$1.27	+$0.31	29% 102-251 (353)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 50¢	$1	$0.68	-$0.32	14% 29-185 (214)

DaBossHogg

Over

Invested

$8,717.42

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$74.13

Record

3-36 (39)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$3,707.67

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$3,033.11

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$780.61

Record

37%

37-62 (99)

banepirCTR

Under

Invested

$750

Value

$975

PnL

+$225

Record

—

10-8 (18)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$457.77

Value

$604.22

PnL

+$146.45

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$893.28

Value

$533.9

PnL

+$220.41

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$331.56

Value

$420

PnL

+$88.44

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$245

Value

$325

PnL

+$80

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$207.23

Value

$280.62

PnL

+$73.39

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$221.5

Value

$150.62

PnL

-$70.88

Record

52%

352-329 (681)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$193.5

Value

$135.45

PnL

-$58.05

Record

44%

165-210 (375)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$102.38

Value

$114.74

PnL

+$12.36

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.23

Value

$63.73

PnL

+$15.5

Record

55%

210-170 (380)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.46

Value

$55.35

PnL

+$4.83

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.76

Value

$38.69

PnL

+$8.93

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.42

Value

$36.75

PnL

+$9.33

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.5

Value

$32.5

PnL

+$8

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.78

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$3.52

Record

27%

52-141 (193)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.6

Value

$13

PnL

+$1.4

Record

37%

538-932 (1470)

Gaditima<$100

Over

Invested

$15.28

Value

$10.19

PnL

-$5.09

Record

46%

161-187 (348)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.35

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

66%

1779-919 (2698)

0x0A77exmmCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

41%

26-37 (63)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.96

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.31

Record

29%

102-251 (353)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$0.32

Record

14%

29-185 (214)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 25 top traders (24%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

26% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 22

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.