Hurricanes vs. Kraken: O/U 3.5
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 22%
$3.4K
$22.37
92.6¢ → 94.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-18 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Overavg 92.6¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$80.65 | 52% 352-329 (681) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 7.1¢ | $141.2 | $99.85 | -$41.35 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 9.4¢ | $82.94 | $61.67 | -$21.27 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $14 | $22 | +$8 | 37% 538-932 (1470) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $10.57 | $14.53 | +$3.96 | 36% 209-369 (578) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $18.65 | $13.32 | -$5.33 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $8.05 | $5.75 | -$2.3 | 49% 1241-1273 (2514) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $1 | $1.02 | +$0.02 | 14% 29-185 (214) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 9¢ | $0.1 | $0.08 | -$0.02 | 54% 994-856 (1850) |
nigiri99Invested
$3,135.02
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$80.65
Record
52%
352-329 (681)
Invested
$141.2
Value
$99.85
PnL
-$41.35
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$82.94
Value
$61.67
PnL
-$21.27
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$14
Value
$22
PnL
+$8
Record
37%
538-932 (1470)
Invested
$10.57
Value
$14.53
PnL
+$3.96
Record
36%
209-369 (578)
Invested
$18.65
Value
$13.32
PnL
-$5.33
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
Invested
$8.05
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$2.3
Record
49%
1241-1273 (2514)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.02
PnL
+$0.02
Record
14%
29-185 (214)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$0.02
Record
54%
994-856 (1850)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.