Flames vs. Kings: O/U 5.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 68¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$279.92

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 67.5¢

+38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,982

Combined PnL+$339.18

Over4 traders

Total Value$379.81

Total Shares870

Combined PnL-$59.26

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$194.01	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 48.6¢	$349.23	$409.22	+$59.98	48% 416-456 (872)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 51¢	$378.93	$319.49	-$59.44	50% 663-658 (1321)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 48¢	$285.6	$272.78	+$54.08	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
0xheavy888	Underavg 48¢	$171	$203.06	+$32.06	55% 591-479 (1070)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$27.52	$27.52	+$0	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$22.51	$19.36	-$3.15	46% 86-101 (187)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$37.11	$13.44	+$3.33	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 78¢	$3.55	$2.59	-$0.95	36% 189-338 (527)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,188.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$194.01

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$349.23

Value

$409.22

PnL

+$59.98

Record

48%

416-456 (872)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$378.93

Value

$319.49

PnL

-$59.44

Record

50%

663-658 (1321)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$285.6

Value

$272.78

PnL

+$54.08

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$171

Value

$203.06

PnL

+$32.06

Record

55%

591-479 (1070)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.52

Value

$27.52

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.51

Value

$19.36

PnL

-$3.15

Record

46%

86-101 (187)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.11

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$3.33

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$3.55

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$0.95

Record

36%

189-338 (527)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.