Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (69%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Flames vs. Kings: O/U 4.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 32¢ · $384 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$384.42
-$27.73
59¢ → 31.5¢
-47% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 65¢ | $214.93 | $243.04 | +$28.11 | 50% 2728-2703 (5431) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 43.9¢ | $88.81 | $71.82 | -$16.99 | 48% 3662-4031 (7693) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Overavg 67.5¢ | $67.51 | $33.5 | -$34.01 | 49% 341-352 (693) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $22.09 | $18.38 | -$3.71 | 50% 1931-1953 (3884) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $11.25 | $11.03 | -$0.22 | 55% 591-479 (1070) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $3.51 | $2.66 | -$0.85 | 38% 1390-2228 (3618) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.16 | $2.14 | -$0.02 | 48% 4388-4660 (9048) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $1.89 | $1.87 | -$0.02 | 48% 2369-2583 (4952) |
Invested
$214.93
Value
$243.04
PnL
+$28.11
Record
50%
2728-2703 (5431)
Invested
$88.81
Value
$71.82
PnL
-$16.99
Record
48%
3662-4031 (7693)
Invested
$67.51
Value
$33.5
PnL
-$34.01
Record
49%
341-352 (693)
Invested
$22.09
Value
$18.38
PnL
-$3.71
Record
50%
1931-1953 (3884)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$11.25
Value
$11.03
PnL
-$0.22
Record
55%
591-479 (1070)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$2.66
PnL
-$0.85
Record
38%
1390-2228 (3618)
Invested
$2.16
Value
$2.14
PnL
-$0.02
Record
48%
4388-4660 (9048)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$1.87
PnL
-$0.02
Record
48%
2369-2583 (4952)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.