Sabres vs. Stars
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Stars (60%) · Stars at 56¢ · $68K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Stars
10
Stars 60%
$68.1K
-$98.59
55.2¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralStars at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Stars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoroCTR | Sabresavg 44.8¢ | $30.9K | $30.7K | -$201.84 | 38% 16-26 (42) |
 nigiri99 | Starsavg 55¢ | $15.0K | $15.1K | +$135.92 | 52% 573-538 (1111) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Starsavg 55¢ | $9.5K | $9.6K | +$86.23 | 50% 2560-2519 (5079) |
RO royalestake | Starsavg 56¢ | $6.7K | $6.6K | -$120 | 8% 17-192 (209) |
BA Babooou | Starsavg 55¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | -$0 | 64% 18-10 (28) |
CO cocococococo | Starsavg 56¢ | $622.16 | $616.61 | -$5.55 | 28% 15-39 (54) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Sabresavg 44¢ | $488.84 | $494.4 | +$5.56 | 46% 82-98 (180) |
 fyrskenCTR<$100 | Sabresavg 43¢ | $50.99 | $53.36 | +$2.37 | 50% 56-55 (111) |
PA Pan9X | Starsavg 56.2¢ | $103.91 | $46.33 | -$2.58 | 50% 1601-1625 (3226) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Sabresavg 42.3¢ | $25.36 | $26.68 | +$1.32 | 53% 1854-1648 (3502) |
Invested
$30,918.36
Value
$30.7K
PnL
-$201.84
Record
38%
16-26 (42)
nigiri99Invested
$14,971.18
Value
$15.1K
PnL
+$135.92
Record
52%
573-538 (1111)
Invested
$9,484.96
Value
$9.6K
PnL
+$86.23
Record
50%
2560-2519 (5079)
Invested
$6,720
Value
$6.6K
PnL
-$120
Record
8%
17-192 (209)
Invested
$4,884
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$0
Record
64%
18-10 (28)
Invested
$622.16
Value
$616.61
PnL
-$5.55
Record
28%
15-39 (54)
Invested
$488.84
Value
$494.4
PnL
+$5.56
Record
46%
82-98 (180)
fyrskenCTR<$100Invested
$50.99
Value
$53.36
PnL
+$2.37
Record
50%
56-55 (111)
Invested
$103.91
Value
$46.33
PnL
-$2.58
Record
50%
1601-1625 (3226)
Invested
$25.36
Value
$26.68
PnL
+$1.32
Record
53%
1854-1648 (3502)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
chubbytoro
CTRSabres — $30.7K
nigiri99
Stars — $15.1K
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Stars — $9.6K
royalestake
Stars — $6.6K
Babooou
Stars — $4.9K
cocococococo
Stars — $616.61
AnonymousUsername
CTRSabres — $494.4
fyrsken
CTRSabres — $53.36
Pan9X
Stars — $46.33
ghorrock
CTRSabres — $26.68