Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Giants, while the market favors Commanders (78%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Giants (-8.5)
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (100%) · Giants at 22¢ · $916 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Giants
7
Giants 100%
$916.25
$64.11
20.5¢ → 22¢
+8% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidGiants at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Commanders 78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Giantsavg 22¢ | $271.05 | $271.05 | +$0 | 42% 591-824 (1415) |
HI hi774cCTR | Giantsavg 20¢ | $228.5 | $251.35 | +$22.85 | 19% 127-534 (661) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Giantsavg 19¢ | $93.88 | $108.71 | +$14.82 | 29% 105-255 (360) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Giantsavg 21¢ | $98.18 | $102.86 | +$4.68 | 35% 302-554 (856) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Giantsavg 19¢ | $87.03 | $100.77 | +$13.74 | 36% 577-1014 (1591) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Giantsavg 19.5¢ | $58.5 | $66 | +$7.5 | 24% 204-663 (867) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Giantsavg 21.3¢ | $15 | $15.52 | +$0.52 | 40% 3401-5040 (8441) |
Invested
$271.05
Value
$271.05
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
591-824 (1415)
Invested
$228.5
Value
$251.35
PnL
+$22.85
Record
19%
127-534 (661)
Invested
$93.88
Value
$108.71
PnL
+$14.82
Record
29%
105-255 (360)
Invested
$98.18
Value
$102.86
PnL
+$4.68
Record
35%
302-554 (856)
Invested
$87.03
Value
$100.77
PnL
+$13.74
Record
36%
577-1014 (1591)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$58.5
Value
$66
PnL
+$7.5
Record
24%
204-663 (867)
Invested
$15
Value
$15.52
PnL
+$0.52
Record
40%
3401-5040 (8441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.