Spread: Giants (-6.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (70%) · Commanders at 68¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 13

Giants32¢Commanders68¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 70%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$33.89

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 68¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants32%

Commanders68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,056

Combined PnL-$38.87

Giants3 traders

Total Value$962.41

Total Shares2,997

Combined PnL+$4.98

Commanders — 70%Giants — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCommanders 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Commandersavg 67.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15.86	47% 2406-2681 (5087)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Giantsavg 31.9¢	$727.03	$728.51	+$1.48	42% 591-824 (1415)
nigiri99	Commandersavg 68¢	$682.04	$677.03	-$5.01	52% 399-371 (770)
OD Oddstorm	Commandersavg 68.3¢	$664.82	$629.32	-$15.28	30% 67-157 (224)
AN Anon455	Commandersavg 68¢	$244.22	$240.68	-$3.53	50% 306-310 (616)
fyrskenCTR	Giantsavg 32¢	$224	$227.5	+$3.5	48% 30-33 (63)
tradecraft<$100	Commandersavg 67¢	$15.11	$15.11	+$0	24% 204-663 (867)
PA Pan9X<$100	Commandersavg 68¢	$85.67	$12.5	+$0.82	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Giantsavg 32¢	$6.4	$6.4	+$0	45% 178-222 (400)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Commandersavg 67¢	$4.06	$4.06	+$0	29% 105-255 (360)

38791873984189

Commanders

Invested

$1,170.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15.86

Record

47%

2406-2681 (5087)

BreakTheBankCTR

Giants

Invested

$727.03

Value

$728.51

PnL

+$1.48

Record

42%

591-824 (1415)

nigiri99

Commanders

Invested

$682.04

Value

$677.03

PnL

-$5.01

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

Oddstorm

Commanders

Invested

$664.82

Value

$629.32

PnL

-$15.28

Record

30%

67-157 (224)

Anon455

Commanders

Invested

$244.22

Value

$240.68

PnL

-$3.53

Record

50%

306-310 (616)

fyrskenCTR

Giants

Invested

$224

Value

$227.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

48%

30-33 (63)

tradecraft<$100

Commanders

Invested

$15.11

Value

$15.11

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

204-663 (867)

Pan9X<$100

Commanders

Invested

$85.67

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.82

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

178-222 (400)

BoomLaLa<$100

Commanders

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.06

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCommanders 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.