Spread: Giants (-10.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (75%) · Commanders at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Giants10¢Commanders90¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 75%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$1.91

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 90.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants10%

Commanders91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,246

Combined PnL+$170.98

Giants2 traders

Total Value$216.46

Total Shares2,273

Combined PnL-$172.89

Commanders — 75%Giants — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCommanders 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Commandersavg 86.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$35.5	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
AN Anon455	Commandersavg 81¢	$671.49	$679.78	+$8.29	50% 306-311 (617)
65 6512395314597884	Commandersavg 79.8¢	$406.87	$456.45	+$49.58	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Commandersavg 76¢	$380	$447.5	+$67.5	54% 1122-947 (2069)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Giantsavg 17.1¢	$388.09	$215.27	-$172.82	52% 411-380 (791)
PA Pan9X<$100	Commandersavg 77.5¢	$44.16	$51.02	+$6.86	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
NO NotJump<$100	Commandersavg 83¢	$41.5	$44.75	+$3.25	54% 545-473 (1018)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Giantsavg 18¢	$1.26	$1.19	-$0.07	24% 204-663 (867)

38791873984189

Commanders

Invested

$1,128

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$35.5

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Anon455

Commanders

Invested

$671.49

Value

$679.78

PnL

+$8.29

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

6512395314597884

Commanders

Invested

$406.87

Value

$456.45

PnL

+$49.58

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Commanders

Invested

$380

Value

$447.5

PnL

+$67.5

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Giants

Invested

$388.09

Value

$215.27

PnL

-$172.82

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

Pan9X<$100

Commanders

Invested

$44.16

Value

$51.02

PnL

+$6.86

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

NotJump<$100

Commanders

Invested

$41.5

Value

$44.75

PnL

+$3.25

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.07

Record

24%

204-663 (867)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCommanders 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.