Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 52.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 40¢ · $33K held · ended Nov 9

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.2K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 39.5¢

-25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares27,755

Combined PnL-$720.49

Under8 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares30,091

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 52.7¢	$12.1K	$11.6K	-$503.9	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 40.9¢	$6.8K	$9.9K	+$3.1K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
AN Anon455	Underavg 58.5¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$34.69	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
RN1	Underavg 42.2¢	$1.7K	$2.5K	+$742.63	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 55.7¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$200.51	47% 242-270 (512)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 45.6¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$307.13	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$205.89	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$725.52	$823.51	+$98
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.9¢	$357.22	$465.11	+$107.89
38 38791873984189	Underavg 64.3¢	$2.5K	$1.1K	-$445.43	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 41.4¢	$655.52	$640.71	-$14.81	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 50¢	$500	$454.5	+$19.83	80% 4375-1094 (5469)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	Underavg 60.7¢	$99.5	$82.75	-$16.75	46% 566-653 (1219)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50.7¢	$25.4	$29.77	+$4.38	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
QI qidao001CTR<$100	Overavg 53.6¢	$24.29	$21.99	-$2.29	84% 1390-257 (1647)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$2.45	$3.47	+$1.01	50% 48622-48197 (96819)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$12,082.81

Value

$11.6K

PnL

-$503.9

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$6,829.74

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$2,760.82

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$34.69

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,708.46

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$742.63

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,790.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$200.51

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,004.46

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$307.13

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,082.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$205.89

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Under$725.5248¢+$98

Over$357.2234.9¢+$107.89

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$2,546.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$445.43

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$655.52

Value

$640.71

PnL

-$14.81

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$454.5

PnL

+$19.83

Record

80%

4375-1094 (5469)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

Under

Invested

$99.5

Value

$82.75

PnL

-$16.75

Record

46%

566-653 (1219)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$25.4

Value

$29.77

PnL

+$4.38

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

qidao001CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.29

Value

$21.99

PnL

-$2.29

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.