Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bears, while the market favors Buccaneers (65%). 10 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bears (-7.5)

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (53%) · Bears at 36¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 9

Bears36¢Buccaneers64¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bears

Consensus Traders

Bears 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.0K

Combined PnL

$362.57

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 35.5¢

-20% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralBears at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

10 of 19 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Buccaneers 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears36%

Buccaneers65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bears10 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares34,816

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Buccaneers9 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares18,404

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Bears — 53%Buccaneers — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Bearsavg 42.7¢	$12.0K	$10.5K	$-1.5K	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
RN1	Buccaneersavg 46.9¢	$5.5K	$6.7K	+$1.1K	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
TKD44CTR	Bearsavg 46.3¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$99.63	49% 183-193 (376)
38 38791873984189	Buccaneersavg 58¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$207.74	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Buccaneersavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$271.98	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Buccaneersavg 48.7¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$405.63	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Bearsavg 53.7¢	$1.1K	$890	-$184.95	48% 215-230 (445)
MA MadridTime	Buccaneersavg 27.8¢	$310.04	$652.18	+$342.14	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Buccaneersavg 42.8¢	$454.59	$597.04	+$142.45	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 42.8¢	$260.7	$392.47	+$131.77
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 33.6¢	$193.89	$204.57	+$10.68
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Bearsavg 45.9¢	$723.3	$559.6	-$163.7	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
BI biying88888CTR	Bearsavg 45.7¢	$639.94	$454.68	-$185.26	47% 242-270 (512)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Buccaneersavg 46.8¢	$237.58	$342.61	+$105.04	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Buccaneersavg 58¢	$232	$234	+$2	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
LI LimousinCTR	Bearsavg 42.7¢	$139.25	$135.24	-$4.01	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
CM cm2897<$100	Buccaneersavg 27.6¢	$24.56	$52.07	+$27.51	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bearsavg 38¢	$64.37	$32.16	+$18.17	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
LI LightParadox<$100	Buccaneersavg 27.6¢	$11.04	$23.4	+$12.36	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
QI qidao001CTR<$100	Bearsavg 42.9¢	$23.61	$19.64	-$3.97	84% 1390-257 (1647)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Bearsavg 41¢	$9.02	$9.13	+$0.11	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Bearsavg 40.7¢	$9.7	$7.74	-$1.96	47% 2189-2445 (4634)

primmCTR

Bears

Invested

$12,002.63

Value

$10.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

RN1

Buccaneers

Invested

$5,532.11

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

TKD44CTR

Bears

Invested

$2,578.45

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$99.63

Record

49%

183-193 (376)

38791873984189

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,853.07

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$207.74

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,574.65

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$271.98

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

ferrariChampions2026

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,053.33

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$405.63

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Bears

Invested

$1,074.95

Value

$890

PnL

-$184.95

Record

48%

215-230 (445)

MadridTime

Buccaneers

Invested

$310.04

Value

$652.18

PnL

+$342.14

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$454.59

Value

$597.04

PnL

+$142.45

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Both legs:

Buccaneers$260.742.8¢+$131.77

Bears$193.8933.6¢+$10.68

justaluckydudeCTR

Bears

Invested

$723.3

Value

$559.6

PnL

-$163.7

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

biying88888CTR

Bears

Invested

$639.94

Value

$454.68

PnL

-$185.26

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Buccaneers

Invested

$237.58

Value

$342.61

PnL

+$105.04

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Buccaneers

Invested

$232

Value

$234

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

LimousinCTR

Bears

Invested

$139.25

Value

$135.24

PnL

-$4.01

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

cm2897<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$24.56

Value

$52.07

PnL

+$27.51

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$64.37

Value

$32.16

PnL

+$18.17

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

LightParadox<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$11.04

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$12.36

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

qidao001CTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$23.61

Value

$19.64

PnL

-$3.97

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.13

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

VenusianCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$9.7

Value

$7.74

PnL

-$1.96

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Research grade

NeutralBears at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

10 of 19 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Buccaneers 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.