Spread: Bears (-4.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (50%) · Bears at 84¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 9

Bears84¢Buccaneers16¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bears

Consensus Traders

Bears 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$330.68

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 84¢

+53% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBears at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bears84%

Buccaneers16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bears5 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares13,326

Combined PnL+$191.96

Buccaneers5 traders

Total Value$933.95

Total Shares3,346

Combined PnL-$522.64

Bears — 50%Buccaneers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Bearsavg 55¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$51.3	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
DO DolphinBaller	Bearsavg 55¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13	44% 124-157 (281)
38 38791873984189CTR	Buccaneersavg 44¢	$1.4K	$869	-$521.4	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Buccaneersavg 44¢	$464.42	$469.38	+$4.96	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 44¢	$322.52	$326.19	+$3.67
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 55¢	$141.9	$143.19	+$1.29
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Bearsavg 56¢	$232	$350.07	+$118.07	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 44¢	$38.43	$38.87	+$0.44	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
nigiri99<$100	Bearsavg 55¢	$23.1	$23.31	+$0.21	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 47¢	$14.72	$14.24	-$0.48	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bearsavg 55¢	$20.76	$9.34	+$9.38	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 19¢	$10.27	$8.92	-$1.35	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 21.3¢	$2.77	$2.93	+$0.16	51% 5685-5538 (11223)

HomeRunHazard

Bears

Invested

$5,642.71

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$51.3

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

DolphinBaller

Bears

Invested

$1,429.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13

Record

44%

124-157 (281)

38791873984189CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,390.4

Value

$869

PnL

-$521.4

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Anon455ARB<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$464.42

Value

$469.38

PnL

+$4.96

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Buccaneers$322.5244¢+$3.67

Bears$141.955¢+$1.29

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bears

Invested

$232

Value

$350.07

PnL

+$118.07

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$38.43

Value

$38.87

PnL

+$0.44

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

nigiri99<$100

Bears

Invested

$23.1

Value

$23.31

PnL

+$0.21

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$14.72

Value

$14.24

PnL

-$0.48

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Pan9X<$100

Bears

Invested

$20.76

Value

$9.34

PnL

+$9.38

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$10.27

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$1.35

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$2.77

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.16

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Research grade

NeutralBears at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.