Spread: Bears (-3.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (55%) · Bears at 85¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 9

Bears85¢Buccaneers15¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bears

Consensus Traders

Bears 55%

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

$704.19

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 85¢

+45% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBears at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears85%

Buccaneers15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bears6 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares20,837

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Buccaneers5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares10,439

Combined PnL-$684.29

Bears — 55%Buccaneers — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Buccaneers) and the top 1000 (4 on Bears) disagree here.

whaleBears 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBuccaneers 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bears 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Bearsavg 57.9¢	$6.7K	$6.8K	+$70.71	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
nigiri99	Bearsavg 59.9¢	$5.0K	$6.2K	+$1.3K	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
VeryLucky888CTR	Buccaneersavg 40¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$31.19	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
38 38791873984189CTR	Buccaneersavg 40.1¢	$1.1K	$749.2	-$384.91	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Bearsavg 58.6¢	$234.55	$238	+$3.45	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
JU JudgeLance	Bearsavg 60.7¢	$170.78	$233.44	+$62.66	51% 47-46 (93)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Buccaneersavg 40¢	$475.86	$172.5	-$303.36	48% 4750-5250 (10000)
NM NM-P	Bearsavg 59¢	$135.7	$136.85	+$1.15	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 34¢	$49.22	$26.06	-$23.16	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 40.6¢	$10.55	$6.5	-$4.05	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
AN Anon455<$100	Bearsavg 84¢	$2.8	$2.65	-$0.15	54% 4009-3371 (7380)

HomeRunHazard

Bears

Invested

$6,743.35

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$70.71

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

nigiri99

Bears

Invested

$4,962.33

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

VeryLucky888CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$2,510.08

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$31.19

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

38791873984189CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,134.11

Value

$749.2

PnL

-$384.91

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bears

Invested

$234.55

Value

$238

PnL

+$3.45

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

JudgeLance

Bears

Invested

$170.78

Value

$233.44

PnL

+$62.66

Record

51%

47-46 (93)

Bagwell306CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$475.86

Value

$172.5

PnL

-$303.36

Record

48%

4750-5250 (10000)

NM-P

Bears

Invested

$135.7

Value

$136.85

PnL

+$1.15

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$49.22

Value

$26.06

PnL

-$23.16

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$10.55

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$4.05

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Anon455<$100

Bears

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Research grade

NeutralBears at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Buccaneers) and the top 1000 (4 on Bears) disagree here.

whaleBears 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBuccaneers 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bears 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.