Spread: Bears (-2.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (50%) · Bears at 87¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 9

Bears87¢Buccaneers13¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bears

Consensus Traders

Bears 50%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 87¢

+32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBears at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bears87%

Buccaneers13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bears7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares8,606

Combined PnL+$989.08

Buccaneers7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares9,278

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Bears — 50%Buccaneers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Bearsavg 60.7¢	$2.9K	$3.5K	+$626.51	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
JU justaluckydude	Bearsavg 76.9¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$146.55	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
JU JudgeLance	Bearsavg 68.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$86.15	51% 47-46 (93)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Buccaneersavg 40¢	$1.9K	$610.26	$-1.3K	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
38 38791873984189CTR	Buccaneersavg 32.7¢	$1.7K	$516.14	-$805.05	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
RN1	Bearsavg 72.8¢	$344.45	$411.41	+$66.96	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
65 6512395314597884	Bearsavg 71.2¢	$272.36	$332.78	+$60.41	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 16.4¢	$81.93	$77.42	-$4.51	51% 413-391 (804)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bearsavg 82¢	$23.15	$24.55	+$1.4	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
QI qidao001<$100	Bearsavg 62¢	$5.68	$6.78	+$1.1	84% 1390-257 (1647)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 27.3¢	$13.95	$6.64	-$7.31	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 15¢	$7.5	$6.5	-$1	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 36.7¢	$3.67	$2.6	-$1.07	47% 242-270 (512)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 37.7¢	$1.02	$0.7	-$0.32	45% 462-569 (1031)

primm

Bears

Invested

$2,864.57

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$626.51

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

justaluckydude

Bears

Invested

$1,111.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$146.55

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

JudgeLance

Bears

Invested

$1,060.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$86.15

Record

51%

47-46 (93)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,877.62

Value

$610.26

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

38791873984189CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,707.01

Value

$516.14

PnL

-$805.05

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

RN1

Bears

Invested

$344.45

Value

$411.41

PnL

+$66.96

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

6512395314597884

Bears

Invested

$272.36

Value

$332.78

PnL

+$60.41

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$81.93

Value

$77.42

PnL

-$4.51

Record

51%

413-391 (804)

Pan9X<$100

Bears

Invested

$23.15

Value

$24.55

PnL

+$1.4

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

qidao001<$100

Bears

Invested

$5.68

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$1.1

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$13.95

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$7.31

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$7.5

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

biying88888CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$3.67

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$1.07

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.32

Record

45%

462-569 (1031)

Research grade

NeutralBears at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.