Spread: Bears (-17.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (64%) · Buccaneers at 77¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 9

Bears24¢Buccaneers76¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

Buccaneers 64%

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 76.5¢

+26% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears24%

Buccaneers77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers7 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares18,773

Combined PnL+$932.55

Bears4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares11,938

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Buccaneers — 64%Bears — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Buccaneersavg 59.5¢	$12.1K	$11.8K	-$298.9	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
BI biying88888CTR	Bearsavg 48.4¢	$4.8K	$2.6K	$-2.2K	47% 242-270 (512)
RN1	Buccaneersavg 59.7¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$586.97	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
65 6512395314597884	Buccaneersavg 59.9¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$390.15	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Buccaneersavg 67.9¢	$823.84	$977.08	+$153.24	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
38 38791873984189	Buccaneersavg 70.1¢	$797.26	$772.8	+$91.24	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Bearsavg 26.9¢	$506.83	$357.96	-$148.87	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
PA Pan9X	Buccaneersavg 70.2¢	$124.31	$119.95	+$10.56	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
QI qidao001<$100	Buccaneersavg 61.1¢	$25.46	$24.76	-$0.71	84% 1390-257 (1647)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bearsavg 47.7¢	$27.14	$14.78	-$12.36	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Bearsavg 48.7¢	$2.03	$1.08	-$0.95	45% 462-569 (1031)

primm

Buccaneers

Invested

$12,059.19

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$298.9

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

biying88888CTR

Bears

Invested

$4,834.39

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

RN1

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,686.69

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$586.97

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

6512395314597884

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,131.89

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$390.15

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Buccaneers

Invested

$823.84

Value

$977.08

PnL

+$153.24

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

38791873984189

Buccaneers

Invested

$797.26

Value

$772.8

PnL

+$91.24

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

justaluckydudeCTR

Bears

Invested

$506.83

Value

$357.96

PnL

-$148.87

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

Pan9X

Buccaneers

Invested

$124.31

Value

$119.95

PnL

+$10.56

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

qidao001<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$25.46

Value

$24.76

PnL

-$0.71

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$27.14

Value

$14.78

PnL

-$12.36

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$2.03

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.95

Record

45%

462-569 (1031)

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.