Spread: Bears (-10.5)

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (80%) · Bears at 53¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 9

Bears53¢Buccaneers47¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bears

Consensus Traders

Bears 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.8K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 53¢

+9% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralBears at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

12 of 15 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears53%

Buccaneers47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers3 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares23,082

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Bears12 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares30,239

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Buccaneers — 20%Bears — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ON Onomatopoeia777CTR	Buccaneersavg 52.1¢	$7.4K	$7.5K	+$50.85	44% 80-102 (182)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Bearsavg 56.7¢	$7.0K	$6.8K	-$152.58	50% 577-581 (1158)
AN Anon455	Bearsavg 38.3¢	$2.4K	$3.4K	+$998.43	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
RN1	Bearsavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$173.98	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Buccaneersavg 45.4¢	$6.6K	$2.5K	+$2.9K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bearsavg 31.4¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$408.29	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 31.4¢	$636.91	$1.1K	+$503.78
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 53.8¢	$617.31	$521.82	-$95.49
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Buccaneersavg 48.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$24.34	46% 566-653 (1219)
BI biying88888	Bearsavg 54.8¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$216.67	47% 242-270 (512)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Buccaneersavg 43.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$71.22	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 43.2¢	$840.22	$904.4	+$64.18
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 52.3¢	$318.77	$325.82	+$7.05
JU justaluckydude	Bearsavg 36.3¢	$517.41	$755.41	+$238	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
CI cigarettes	Bearsavg 22¢	$254.46	$630.36	+$375.9	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bearsavg 23.7¢	$158.19	$316.01	+$157.82	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Bearsavg 52¢	$289.92	$298.28	+$8.36	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bearsavg 31.6¢	$74.66	$54.07	+$19.68	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
MA MadridTime<$100	Bearsavg 44.6¢	$27.19	$30.8	+$3.61	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
VE Venusian<$100	Bearsavg 43.5¢	$7.87	$9.69	+$1.82	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
QI qidao001<$100	Bearsavg 44.8¢	$2.42	$2.57	+$0.15	84% 1390-257 (1647)

Onomatopoeia777CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$7,425.15

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$50.85

Record

44%

80-102 (182)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Bears

Invested

$6,986.02

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$152.58

Record

50%

577-581 (1158)

Anon455

Bears

Invested

$2,364.29

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$998.43

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

RN1

Bears

Invested

$2,473.19

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$173.98

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$6,624.02

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bears

Invested

$1,355.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$408.29

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Bears$636.9131.4¢+$503.78

Buccaneers$617.3153.8¢-$95.49

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,579.72

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$24.34

Record

46%

566-653 (1219)

biying88888

Bears

Invested

$1,634.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$216.67

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,158.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$71.22

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Both legs:

Buccaneers$840.2243.2¢+$64.18

Bears$318.7752.3¢+$7.05

justaluckydude

Bears

Invested

$517.41

Value

$755.41

PnL

+$238

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

cigarettes

Bears

Invested

$254.46

Value

$630.36

PnL

+$375.9

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bears

Invested

$158.19

Value

$316.01

PnL

+$157.82

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

ferrariChampions2026

Bears

Invested

$289.92

Value

$298.28

PnL

+$8.36

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

Pan9X<$100

Bears

Invested

$74.66

Value

$54.07

PnL

+$19.68

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

MadridTime<$100

Bears

Invested

$27.19

Value

$30.8

PnL

+$3.61

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Venusian<$100

Bears

Invested

$7.87

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$1.82

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

qidao001<$100

Bears

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.15

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

Research grade

NeutralBears at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bears

12 of 15 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.