Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

49ers vs. Cowboys: O/U 64.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 50¢ · $36K held · ended Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.5K

Combined PnL

$414.02

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 49.5¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares20,886

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over3 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares29,304

Combined PnL-$607.87

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 46.6¢	$8.7K	$9.4K	+$725.83	59% 1231-873 (2104)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 43.7¢	$8.4K	$8.8K	+$426.5	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.7¢	$4.4K	$4.8K	+$378.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.9¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$48.39
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 52.3¢	$8.4K	$8.5K	+$29.08	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
CM cm2897CTR	Overavg 56.4¢	$7.4K	$6.7K	-$642.67	49% 1281-1325 (2606)
AN Anon455	Underavg 43¢	$860	$1.1K	+$270	50% 563-572 (1135)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 54.4¢	$506.18	$511.97	+$5.79	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.4¢	$291.21	$265.04	-$26.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$214.97	$246.93	+$31.96
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 53.1¢	$546.98	$268.82	+$11.67	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.1¢	$162.05	$166.45	-$14.96
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$96.75	$102.38	+$26.63
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 44.5¢	$898.15	$83	+$21.91	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
NO NotJumpCTR	Overavg 48.2¢	$114.19	$71.43	+$5.72	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 45¢	$52.86	$56.97	+$4.11	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.71	$2.74	+$0.03	39% 1738-2713 (4451)

primm

Under

Invested

$8,657.62

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$725.83

Record

59%

1231-873 (2104)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$8,413.1

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$426.5

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Under$4,380.9243.7¢+$378.1

Over$4,032.1851.9¢+$48.39

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$8,446.37

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$29.08

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

cm2897CTR

Over

Invested

$7,360.33

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$642.67

Record

49%

1281-1325 (2606)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$860

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$270

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$506.18

Value

$511.97

PnL

+$5.79

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Both legs:

Over$291.2154.4¢-$26.17

Under$214.9744¢+$31.96

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$546.98

Value

$268.82

PnL

+$11.67

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Both legs:

Over$162.0553.1¢-$14.96

Under$96.7543¢+$26.63

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$898.15

Value

$83

PnL

+$21.91

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

NotJumpCTR

Over

Invested

$114.19

Value

$71.43

PnL

+$5.72

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$52.86

Value

$56.97

PnL

+$4.11

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.74

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.