49ers vs. Cowboys: O/U 56.5

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 52¢ · $127K held · ended Nov 15

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$126.5K

Combined PnL

$20.48

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 52¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 20 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$59.7K

Total Shares113,555

Combined PnL+$550.89

Over11 traders

Total Value$60.6K

Total Shares120,328

Combined PnL-$530.41

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	Underavg 52¢	$52.0K	$52.5K	+$500	50% 127-126 (253)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 48¢	$35.2K	$32.7K	-$274.38	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
DA DaBossHoggCTR	Overavg 48.2¢	$17.8K	$17.5K	-$254.4	13% 6-40 (46)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$6.4K	$5.9K	+$60.36	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.5¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$3.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$64
PR primmCTR	Overavg 47¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$48.08	59% 1193-836 (2029)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$27.62	50% 760-746 (1506)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 53¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$21.7	59% 535-367 (902)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 52.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$25.39	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12.44	68% 2683-1267 (3950)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.99	49% 497-511 (1008)
BA Bagwell306	Underavg 52¢	$995.72	$1.0K	+$9.57	38% 98-163 (261)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Underavg 52.5¢	$786.37	$801.43	+$15.06	45% 74-90 (164)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 52.5¢	$759.06	$759.13	+$0.07	47% 507-561 (1068)
0xheavy888	Underavg 52¢	$585	$590.62	+$5.62	56% 693-539 (1232)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 48¢	$470.88	$465.97	-$4.91	44% 349-436 (785)
BA banepir	Underavg 52¢	$287.73	$293.27	+$5.53	56% 20-16 (36)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$210.57	$212.69	+$2.13	43% 577-770 (1347)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$110.6	$111.66	+$1.06
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$99.97	$101.03	+$1.06
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 47¢	$132.21	$133.61	+$1.41	39% 237-370 (607)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51.6¢	$433.59	$79.34	+$11.34	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$70.34	$71.05	+$0.71	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$36.95	$37.3	+$0.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$33.39	$33.75	+$0.36
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$63.36	$62.7	-$0.66	52% 420-389 (809)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.82	$2.82	+$0	50% 2215-2229 (4444)

justwins

Under

Invested

$52,000

Value

$52.5K

PnL

+$500

Record

50%

127-126 (253)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$35,218.44

Value

$32.7K

PnL

-$274.38

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

DaBossHoggCTR

Over

Invested

$17,771.99

Value

$17.5K

PnL

-$254.4

Record

13%

6-40 (46)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,442.7

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$60.36

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Both legs:

Over$4,081.447.5¢-$3.64

Under$1,805.0451¢+$64

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$4,519.29

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$48.08

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$2,651.52

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$27.62

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$2,300.21

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$21.7

Record

59%

535-367 (902)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,326.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$25.39

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$1,194.32

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.44

Record

68%

2683-1267 (3950)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$1,148.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.99

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Bagwell306

Under

Invested

$995.72

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.57

Record

38%

98-163 (261)

0x0A77exmm

Under

Invested

$786.37

Value

$801.43

PnL

+$15.06

Record

45%

74-90 (164)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$759.06

Value

$759.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$585

Value

$590.62

PnL

+$5.62

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$470.88

Value

$465.97

PnL

-$4.91

Record

44%

349-436 (785)

banepir

Under

Invested

$287.73

Value

$293.27

PnL

+$5.53

Record

56%

20-16 (36)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$210.57

Value

$212.69

PnL

+$2.13

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

Both legs:

Invested

$132.21

Value

$133.61

PnL

+$1.41

Record

39%

237-370 (607)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$433.59

Value

$79.34

PnL

+$11.34

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$70.34

Value

$71.05

PnL

+$0.71

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

Both legs:

Under$36.9552¢+$0.36

Over$33.3947¢+$0.36

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.36

Value

$62.7

PnL

-$0.66

Record

52%

420-389 (809)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 20 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.