49ers vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 59¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 15

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.9K

Combined PnL

-$646.9

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 58.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares27,080

Combined PnL-$717.18

Over8 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares26,717

Combined PnL+$70.28

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45.6¢	$7.1K	$6.4K	-$628.75	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
PU purplegatto	Overavg 54¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$115.58	68% 2683-1267 (3950)
BA banepir	Overavg 55¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$35	56% 20-16 (36)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$3.1K	$2.7K	-$3.32	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$19.81
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.8¢	$568.07	$576.3	+$16.49
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 46¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$28.31	48% 722-769 (1491)
nigiri99	Overavg 54.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$29.92	50% 760-746 (1506)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 54¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$128.04	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
AN Anon455	Overavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.36	49% 497-511 (1008)
PL pltrkr111	Overavg 54¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$9.26	8% 48-556 (604)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 46¢	$460	$465	+$5	30% 501-1144 (1645)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 46¢	$379.96	$384.09	+$4.13	47% 507-561 (1068)
OD Oddstorm	Overavg 54¢	$344.52	$344.52	-$0	35% 143-263 (406)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 44¢	$201.92	$178.39	+$2.06	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 54¢	$39.69	$39.69	+$0	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$10.58	$10.7	+$0.12	52% 420-389 (809)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$7,065.21

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$628.75

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

purplegatto

Over

Invested

$4,160.7

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$115.58

Record

68%

2683-1267 (3950)

banepir

Over

Invested

$3,850

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$35

Record

56%

20-16 (36)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,055

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$3.32

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Both legs:

Over$2,139.4854¢-$19.81

Under$568.0745.8¢+$16.49

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$2,604.78

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$28.31

Record

48%

722-769 (1491)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$2,312.77

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$29.92

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,718

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,646.24

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$128.04

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$1,112.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.36

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

pltrkr111

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.26

Record

48-556 (604)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$460

Value

$465

PnL

+$5

Record

30%

501-1144 (1645)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$379.96

Value

$384.09

PnL

+$4.13

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

Oddstorm

Over

Invested

$344.52

Value

$344.52

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

143-263 (406)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$201.92

Value

$178.39

PnL

+$2.06

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$39.69

Value

$39.69

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.58

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

420-389 (809)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.