49ers vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 88¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over88¢Under12¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$161.98

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 87.5¢

+43% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$689.96

Total Shares1,031

Combined PnL+$47.49

Under6 traders

Total Value$269.75

Total Shares1,206

Combined PnL-$209.47

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Overavg 60¢	$473.85	$518.39	+$44.54	50% 501-511 (1012)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 64.4¢	$168.62	$171.56	+$2.95	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$105	$101.99	-$0.01	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$51.74	$70.89	+$19.39
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$49.38	$31.11	-$19.39
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 39.5¢	$89.62	$88.53	-$1.09	46% 1242-1436 (2678)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 40¢	$264.38	$79.31	-$185.07	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$63.93	$55.74	-$8.2	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$43.22	$28.09	-$15.13	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$17.55	$17.55	-$0	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$0.52	$0.52	+$0.01	50% 4065-4065 (8130)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$473.85

Value

$518.39

PnL

+$44.54

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$168.62

Value

$171.56

PnL

+$2.95

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

NotJumpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$105

Value

$101.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Over$51.7450¢+$19.39

Under$49.3850¢-$19.39

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$89.62

Value

$88.53

PnL

-$1.09

Record

46%

1242-1436 (2678)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$264.38

Value

$79.31

PnL

-$185.07

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.93

Value

$55.74

PnL

-$8.2

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.22

Value

$28.09

PnL

-$15.13

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.55

Value

$17.55

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.