Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

49ers Team Total: O/U 30.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 33¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$776.03

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 33¢

-33% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares9,250

Combined PnL+$955.26

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares10,223

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 51¢	$2.8K	$3.7K	+$929.56	51% 793-768 (1561)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283	Overavg 50.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$26.35	33% 46-94 (140)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$866.97	47% 536-593 (1129)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$748.07	38% 107-172 (279)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$263.72	$172.48	-$91.24	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 50.9¢	$117.05	$117.3	+$0.25	44% 360-455 (815)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 47¢	$113.27	$93.99	-$19.28	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Overavg 51.6¢	$74.84	$73.94	-$0.9	20% 41-169 (210)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$31.97	$26.23	-$5.74	54% 2084-1743 (3827)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$2,788.68

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$929.56

Record

51%

793-768 (1561)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283

Over

Invested

$1,711.22

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$26.35

Record

33%

46-94 (140)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$2,450.52

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$866.97

Record

47%

536-593 (1129)

Bagwell306CTR

Under

Invested

$2,159.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$748.07

Record

38%

107-172 (279)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$263.72

Value

$172.48

PnL

-$91.24

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$117.05

Value

$117.3

PnL

+$0.25

Record

44%

360-455 (815)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$113.27

Value

$93.99

PnL

-$19.28

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Over

Invested

$74.84

Value

$73.94

PnL

-$0.9

Record

20%

41-169 (210)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.97

Value

$26.23

PnL

-$5.74

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 33%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.