Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cowboys, while the market favors 49ers (53%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 49ers (-5.5)

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (57%) · Cowboys at 47¢ · $47K held · ended Nov 15

49ers53¢Cowboys47¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.4K

Combined PnL

$970.18

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 47¢

-15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors 49ers 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers53%

Cowboys47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys8 traders

Total Value$26.7K

Total Shares46,053

Combined PnL+$686.05

49ers6 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares43,936

Combined PnL+$284.13

Cowboys — 57%49ers — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCowboys 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 100049ers 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Cowboysavg 55¢	$20.7K	$21.6K	+$939.89	51% 3939-3726 (7665)
TA takeormake	49ersavg 45¢	$11.0K	$11.0K	-$0	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
HO HomeRunHazard	49ersavg 45¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	-$0	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Cowboysavg 55.3¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	+$6.95	69% 1741-780 (2521)
PR primm	49ersavg 41.1¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$360.38	59% 1193-836 (2029)
RN1CTR	Cowboysavg 59¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$12.84	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
AN Anon455CTR	Cowboysavg 58.7¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$273.83	49% 497-511 (1008)
38 38791873984189	49ersavg 44.6¢	$1.5K	$703.08	-$81.25	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Cowboysavg 57¢	$510	$500	-$10	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 57¢	$285	$287.5	+$2.5
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 45¢	$225	$212.5	-$12.5
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	49ersavg 44¢	$440	$445	+$5	30% 501-1144 (1645)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 58.7¢	$311.5	$278.21	-$33.29	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 58.7¢	$241.36	$187.2	-$54.17
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 42¢	$70.14	$91.02	+$20.88
GC GC-P	49ersavg 45¢	$225	$225	-$0	43% 577-770 (1347)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 46¢	$64.34	$64.34	+$0	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
NO NotJumpCTR	Cowboysavg 50¢	$105	$63.51	+$0.5	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 57.7¢	$83.69	$12.61	-$0.14	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 47.5¢	$2.33	$2.18	-$0.15	49% 2896-2959 (5855)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$20,677.52

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$939.89

Record

51%

3939-3726 (7665)

takeormake

49ers

Invested

$10,999.35

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

HomeRunHazard

49ers

Invested

$6,013.64

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

SunlineTickerCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$2,751.52

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$6.95

Record

69%

1741-780 (2521)

primm

49ers

Invested

$1,191.83

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$360.38

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

RN1CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,514.53

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$12.84

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Anon455CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,354.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$273.83

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

38791873984189

49ers

Invested

$1,486.82

Value

$703.08

PnL

-$81.25

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

NM-PARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$510

Value

$500

PnL

-$10

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

Both legs:

Cowboys$28557¢+$2.5

49ers$22545¢-$12.5

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

49ers

Invested

$440

Value

$445

PnL

+$5

Record

30%

501-1144 (1645)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$311.5

Value

$278.21

PnL

-$33.29

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Cowboys$241.3658.7¢-$54.17

49ers$70.1442¢+$20.88

GC-P

49ers

Invested

$225

Value

$225

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

VenusianCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$64.34

Value

$64.34

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

NotJumpCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$105

Value

$63.51

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$83.69

Value

$12.61

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors 49ers 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCowboys 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 100049ers 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.