Spread: 49ers (-2.5)

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (60%) · 49ers at 59¢ · $74K held · ends Nov 15

49ers59¢Cowboys41¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 60%

Total Value

$74.4K

Combined PnL

-$5.81

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 58.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers59%

Cowboys42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers9 traders

Total Value$42.0K

Total Shares71,777

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Cowboys6 traders

Total Value$32.4K

Total Shares78,213

Combined PnL+$1.1K

49ers — 60%Cowboys — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCowboys 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 100049ers 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	49ersavg 60¢	$33.7K	$32.9K	-$843.12	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Cowboysavg 40¢	$23.9K	$24.7K	+$894.53	51% 3939-3726 (7665)
HO HomeRunHazard	49ersavg 60¢	$7.4K	$7.2K	-$185.1	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Cowboysavg 40¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$125	58% 113-81 (194)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Cowboysavg 41¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$19.79	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
AN Anon455	49ersavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$30	49% 497-511 (1008)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Cowboysavg 40¢	$380	$389.5	+$9.5	47% 507-561 (1068)
NM NM-P	49ersavg 60¢	$300	$292.5	-$7.5	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
GC GC-P	49ersavg 60¢	$300	$292.5	-$7.5	43% 577-770 (1347)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Cowboysavg 40¢	$238	$243.95	+$5.95	69% 1741-780 (2521)
VI VirIntrepidusCTR	Cowboysavg 39¢	$224.35	$238.73	+$14.38	86% 18-3 (21)
0xheavy888<$100	49ersavg 59¢	$66.08	$65.52	-$0.56	56% 693-539 (1232)
PA Pan9X<$100	49ersavg 59.8¢	$35.85	$35.1	-$0.75	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
38 38791873984189<$100	49ersavg 59¢	$17.27	$17.12	-$0.15	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
IC ic4cream<$100	49ersavg 60¢	$16.8	$16.52	-$0.28	9% 48-481 (529)

takeormake

49ers

Invested

$33,724.8

Value

$32.9K

PnL

-$843.12

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$23,854.21

Value

$24.7K

PnL

+$894.53

Record

51%

3939-3726 (7665)

HomeRunHazard

49ers

Invested

$7,404

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$185.1

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

Siddhartha1CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$125

Record

58%

113-81 (194)

LightParadoxCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,622.39

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$19.79

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

Anon455

49ers

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$30

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$380

Value

$389.5

PnL

+$9.5

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

NM-P

49ers

Invested

$300

Value

$292.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

GC-P

49ers

Invested

$300

Value

$292.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

SunlineTickerCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$238

Value

$243.95

PnL

+$5.95

Record

69%

1741-780 (2521)

VirIntrepidusCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$224.35

Value

$238.73

PnL

+$14.38

Record

86%

18-3 (21)

0xheavy888<$100

49ers

Invested

$66.08

Value

$65.52

PnL

-$0.56

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

Pan9X<$100

49ers

Invested

$35.85

Value

$35.1

PnL

-$0.75

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

38791873984189<$100

49ers

Invested

$17.27

Value

$17.12

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

ic4cream<$100

49ers

Invested

$16.8

Value

$16.52

PnL

-$0.28

Record

48-481 (529)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

49ers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCowboys 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 100049ers 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.