1H Spread: 49ers (-2.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (64%) · 49ers at 62¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 15

49ers62¢Cowboys38¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 64%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

-$163.77

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 61.5¢

+18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

49ers62%

Cowboys39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares13,322

Combined PnL-$235.34

Cowboys4 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares12,496

Combined PnL+$71.57

49ers — 64%Cowboys — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	49ersavg 52.5¢	$3.9K	$3.4K	-$479.7	68% 2683-1267 (3950)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cowboysavg 47.5¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$51.27	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
nigiri99	49ersavg 52.5¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$291.57	50% 760-746 (1506)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Cowboysavg 47¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$44.87	38% 98-163 (261)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Cowboysavg 48.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$2.62	47% 507-561 (1068)
38 38791873984189	49ersavg 49.1¢	$529.49	$507.1	-$22.38	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
FO Forecastication2	49ersavg 51¢	$294.77	$265.88	-$28.9	44% 349-436 (785)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	49ersavg 53.9¢	$108.87	$108.07	-$0.8	19% 40-169 (209)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	49ersavg 45¢	$75	$79.16	+$4.17	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Cowboysavg 56¢	$95.19	$67.99	-$27.2	46% 165-193 (358)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	49ersavg 45¢	$12.75	$13.46	+$0.71	55% 1999-1665 (3664)

purplegatto

49ers

Invested

$3,882.78

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$479.7

Record

68%

2683-1267 (3950)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$2,390.22

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$51.27

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

nigiri99

49ers

Invested

$2,031.63

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$291.57

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

Bagwell306CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$2,109.11

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$44.87

Record

38%

98-163 (261)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,357.38

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$2.62

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

38791873984189

49ers

Invested

$529.49

Value

$507.1

PnL

-$22.38

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Forecastication2

49ers

Invested

$294.77

Value

$265.88

PnL

-$28.9

Record

44%

349-436 (785)

TheWindKnowsmyName

49ers

Invested

$108.87

Value

$108.07

PnL

-$0.8

Record

19%

40-169 (209)

topdogbigboi<$100

49ers

Invested

$75

Value

$79.16

PnL

+$4.17

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$95.19

Value

$67.99

PnL

-$27.2

Record

46%

165-193 (358)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

49ers

Invested

$12.75

Value

$13.46

PnL

+$0.71

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.