Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (70%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Seahawks vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 31¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

-$732.81

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 30.5¢

-37% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares7,186

Combined PnL-$763.55

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,305

Combined PnL+$30.74

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 53.3¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$71.42	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.3¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$131.74
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$60.33
PR primmCTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$452.89	59% 1193-836 (2029)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 56.1¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$34.13	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 44¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0.47	69% 1741-780 (2521)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 56¢	$1.3K	$856.24	-$306.39	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 48.1¢	$492.69	$463.93	-$28.75	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$264.69	$233.94	-$30.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$228	$230	+$2
BI biying88888<$100	Overavg 46¢	$92	$88	-$4	43% 247-322 (569)
NO NotJump	Overavg 50¢	$105	$62.5	+$0.5	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 58.1¢	$37.63	$36.91	-$0.71	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Overavg 51.9¢	$32.2	$32.55	+$0.35	77% 285-84 (369)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 42.7¢	$35.04	$30.78	-$4.26	38% 1425-2328 (3753)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,070

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$71.42

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Both legs:

Over$3,960.0253.3¢-$131.74

Under$1,109.9846¢+$60.33

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$2,312.93

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$452.89

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$1,435.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$34.13

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$1,043.65

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.47

Record

69%

1741-780 (2521)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$1,312.64

Value

$856.24

PnL

-$306.39

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$492.69

Value

$463.93

PnL

-$28.75

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Under$264.6948.1¢-$30.75

Over$22857¢+$2

biying88888<$100

Over

Invested

$92

Value

$88

PnL

-$4

Record

43%

247-322 (569)

NotJump

Over

Invested

$105

Value

$62.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$37.63

Value

$36.91

PnL

-$0.71

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Dreamwire<$100

Over

Invested

$32.2

Value

$32.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

77%

285-84 (369)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.04

Value

$30.78

PnL

-$4.26

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.