Seahawks vs. Raiders: O/U 40.5

4 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 52¢ · $100K held · ends Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$99.5K

Combined PnL

-$386.74

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 51.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 18 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$52.2K

Total Shares101,740

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under14 traders

Total Value$46.8K

Total Shares96,710

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 76% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Overavg 50.4¢	$27.9K	$28.5K	+$583.87	6% 10-159 (169)
PW PwaddlerCTR	Underavg 51¢	$22.4K	$21.1K	$-1.3K	49% 271-286 (557)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 49¢	$19.9K	$20.7K	+$810.92	48% 720-766 (1486)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$12.3K	$12.1K	-$246.55	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 49.8¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	-$139.5	26% 249-694 (943)
SI Siddhartha1	Overavg 51¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$28.49	58% 113-81 (194)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 49.4¢	$3.6K	$2.8K	-$35.31	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$1.77	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Underavg 49.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$26.33	45% 74-89 (163)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 49¢	$1,000	$989.79	-$10.2	8% 48-556 (604)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49.4¢	$696.36	$687.47	-$8.88	42% 548-747 (1295)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 49.4¢	$617.5	$606.25	-$11.25	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$569.38	$575.18	+$5.8	48% 471-508 (979)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$379.75	$375.88	-$3.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$189.63	$199.3	+$9.67
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 50¢	$447.74	$434.31	-$13.43	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Overavg 49¢	$104.86	$109.14	+$4.28	52% 419-387 (806)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$103.83	$102.34	-$1.5	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$54.88	$54.32	-$0.56	56% 665-530 (1195)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$20	$19.4	-$0.6	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$3.26	$3.23	-$0.03	38% 1318-2168 (3486)

Kch-Temp

Over

Invested

$27,885.84

Value

$28.5K

PnL

+$583.87

Record

10-159 (169)

PwaddlerCTR

Under

Invested

$22,412.45

Value

$21.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

49%

271-286 (557)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$19,867.44

Value

$20.7K

PnL

+$810.92

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$12,323.68

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$246.55

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$5,484.61

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$139.5

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

Siddhartha1

Over

Invested

$2,906.44

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$28.49

Record

58%

113-81 (194)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$3,620.96

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$35.31

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$2,127.28

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$1.77

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Under

Invested

$1,124.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$26.33

Record

45%

74-89 (163)

pltrkr111CTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$989.79

PnL

-$10.2

Record

48-556 (604)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$696.36

Value

$687.47

PnL

-$8.88

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$617.5

Value

$606.25

PnL

-$11.25

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$569.38

Value

$575.18

PnL

+$5.8

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

Both legs:

Under$379.7549¢-$3.88

Over$189.6349¢+$9.67

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$447.74

Value

$434.31

PnL

-$13.43

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Over

Invested

$104.86

Value

$109.14

PnL

+$4.28

Record

52%

419-387 (806)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$103.83

Value

$102.34

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.88

Value

$54.32

PnL

-$0.56

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$19.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 18 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 76% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.