Seahawks vs. Raiders: O/U 34.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 93¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$568.56

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 92.5¢

+45% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,933

Combined PnL+$709.67

Over4 traders

Total Value$287.37

Total Shares523

Combined PnL-$141.11

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 65¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$58.93	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
RN1	Underavg 70.7¢	$792.41	$778.95	-$13.46	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 52.9¢	$715.21	$528.51	+$341.09	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
GA gaclfz	Underavg 83.8¢	$1.1K	$295.3	+$106.97	15% 32-177 (209)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$367.03	$248.57	-$118.46	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 32.4¢	$121.68	$238.26	+$116.58	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
dips.	Underavg 92¢	$212.52	$213.68	+$1.16	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
BI biying88888	Underavg 47¢	$75.2	$148	+$72.8	44% 268-345 (613)
NO NotJump	Underavg 50¢	$105	$68.89	+$35.74	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$23.46	$24.38	+$0.92	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 65¢	$13	$10.6	-$2.4	50% 563-572 (1135)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$25	$3.83	-$21.17	42% 774-1086 (1860)
PR primm<$100	Underavg 48¢	$12	$1.88	-$10.13	59% 1231-873 (2104)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,008.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$58.93

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

RN1

Under

Invested

$792.41

Value

$778.95

PnL

-$13.46

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$715.21

Value

$528.51

PnL

+$341.09

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

gaclfz

Under

Invested

$1,113

Value

$295.3

PnL

+$106.97

Record

15%

32-177 (209)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$367.03

Value

$248.57

PnL

-$118.46

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$121.68

Value

$238.26

PnL

+$116.58

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

dips.

Under

Invested

$212.52

Value

$213.68

PnL

+$1.16

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$75.2

Value

$148

PnL

+$72.8

Record

44%

268-345 (613)

NotJump

Under

Invested

$105

Value

$68.89

PnL

+$35.74

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.46

Value

$24.38

PnL

+$0.92

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$2.4

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$21.17

Record

42%

774-1086 (1860)

primm<$100

Under

Invested

$12

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$10.13

Record

59%

1231-873 (2104)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.