Spread: Raiders (-4.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (78%) · Seahawks at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Raiders7¢Seahawks93¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 78%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$7.85

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 93.5¢

+31% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raiders7%

Seahawks94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,658

Combined PnL+$257.47

Raiders2 traders

Total Value$682.02

Total Shares3,244

Combined PnL-$249.61

Seahawks — 78%Raiders — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Seahawksavg 71¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$205.46	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
PR primmCTR	Raidersavg 28.8¢	$928.91	$678.09	-$250.82	59% 1231-873 (2104)
65 6512395314597884	Seahawksavg 71.9¢	$465.03	$510.65	+$45.62	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
NO NotJump	Seahawksavg 56.5¢	$133.86	$125.31	+$4.45	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Seahawksavg 80.3¢	$120.5	$118.5	-$2	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
38 38791873984189<$100	Seahawksavg 84.3¢	$54.89	$51.44	-$3.45	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
PA Pan9X<$100	Seahawksavg 70.3¢	$42.9	$48.19	+$5.29	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
AN Anon455<$100	Seahawksavg 70¢	$16.33	$18.43	+$2.1	50% 563-572 (1135)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Raidersavg 18¢	$2.72	$3.93	+$1.21	38% 1454-2390 (3844)

RN1

Seahawks

Invested

$1,823.48

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$205.46

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

primmCTR

Raiders

Invested

$928.91

Value

$678.09

PnL

-$250.82

Record

59%

1231-873 (2104)

6512395314597884

Seahawks

Invested

$465.03

Value

$510.65

PnL

+$45.62

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

NotJump

Seahawks

Invested

$133.86

Value

$125.31

PnL

+$4.45

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Seahawks

Invested

$120.5

Value

$118.5

PnL

-$2

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

38791873984189<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$54.89

Value

$51.44

PnL

-$3.45

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Pan9X<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$42.9

Value

$48.19

PnL

+$5.29

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

Anon455<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$16.33

Value

$18.43

PnL

+$2.1

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$2.72

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$1.21

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.