Spread: Raiders (-3.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (77%) · Seahawks at 93¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Raiders8¢Seahawks92¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 77%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$6.44

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 92.5¢

+19% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raiders8%

Seahawks93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks10 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,811

Combined PnL-$215.84

Raiders3 traders

Total Value$654.1

Total Shares2,110

Combined PnL+$209.4

Seahawks — 77%Raiders — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSeahawks 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Seahawksavg 78¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$81.12	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
PU purplegatto	Seahawksavg 80¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$65.02	68% 2691-1276 (3967)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Raidersavg 20¢	$380	$589	+$209	47% 536-593 (1129)
FO Forecastication2	Seahawksavg 80¢	$551.2	$525.16	-$26.04	44% 360-455 (815)
65 6512395314597884	Seahawksavg 74.2¢	$267.62	$248.8	-$18.82	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
NO NotJump	Seahawksavg 52.9¢	$190.6	$164	-$8.3	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
dips.	Seahawksavg 76.5¢	$113.2	$67.62	-$7.23	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
PR primmCTR<$100	Raidersavg 31¢	$62	$62	+$0	59% 1231-873 (2104)
38 38791873984189<$100	Seahawksavg 75.4¢	$41.64	$38.11	-$3.52	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Seahawksavg 76¢	$29.64	$26.91	-$2.73	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
PA Pan9X<$100	Seahawksavg 78¢	$17.16	$15.18	-$1.98	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Seahawksavg 80.9¢	$7.28	$6.21	-$1.07	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Raidersavg 27¢	$2.7	$3.1	+$0.4	57% 3727-2840 (6567)

RN1

Seahawks

Invested

$2,258.33

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$81.12

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

purplegatto

Seahawks

Invested

$1,376

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$65.02

Record

68%

2691-1276 (3967)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Raiders

Invested

$380

Value

$589

PnL

+$209

Record

47%

536-593 (1129)

Forecastication2

Seahawks

Invested

$551.2

Value

$525.16

PnL

-$26.04

Record

44%

360-455 (815)

6512395314597884

Seahawks

Invested

$267.62

Value

$248.8

PnL

-$18.82

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

NotJump

Seahawks

Invested

$190.6

Value

$164

PnL

-$8.3

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

dips.

Seahawks

Invested

$113.2

Value

$67.62

PnL

-$7.23

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

primmCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$62

Value

$62

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

1231-873 (2104)

38791873984189<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$41.64

Value

$38.11

PnL

-$3.52

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

topdogbigboi<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$29.64

Value

$26.91

PnL

-$2.73

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Pan9X<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$17.16

Value

$15.18

PnL

-$1.98

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$7.28

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$1.07

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.4

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSeahawks 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.