Spread: Raiders (-2.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (80%) · Seahawks at 86¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Raiders14¢Seahawks86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$371.07

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 85.5¢

+26% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raiders14%

Seahawks86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks8 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares8,937

Combined PnL-$962.51

Raiders2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,371

Combined PnL+$591.44

Seahawks — 80%Raiders — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaiders 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Seahawksavg 68¢	$3.4K	$2.8K	-$542.82	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
PR primmCTR	Raidersavg 32¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$586.28	59% 1231-873 (2104)
AN Anon455	Seahawksavg 68¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$220	50% 563-572 (1135)
38 38791873984189	Seahawksavg 67.1¢	$457.11	$388.33	-$68.77	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
65 6512395314597884	Seahawksavg 67.5¢	$444.98	$377.07	-$67.91	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Seahawksavg 66¢	$293.25	$253.26	-$39.99	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Seahawksavg 50¢	$105	$113.4	+$8.4	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 50¢	$52.5	$68.25	+$15.75
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 50¢	$52.5	$45.15	-$7.35
PA Pan9X<$100	Seahawksavg 67.4¢	$80.92	$68.4	-$12.52	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
dips.<$100	Seahawksavg 65¢	$32.5	$28.5	-$4	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Seahawksavg 70¢	$35	$28.5	-$6.5	50% 714-704 (1418)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Raidersavg 31¢	$13.33	$18.49	+$5.16	57% 3727-2840 (6567)

RN1

Seahawks

Invested

$3,355.62

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$542.82

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

primmCTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,704.76

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$586.28

Record

59%

1231-873 (2104)

Anon455

Seahawks

Invested

$1,381.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$220

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

38791873984189

Seahawks

Invested

$457.11

Value

$388.33

PnL

-$68.77

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

6512395314597884

Seahawks

Invested

$444.98

Value

$377.07

PnL

-$67.91

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Seahawks

Invested

$293.25

Value

$253.26

PnL

-$39.99

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

NotJumpARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$105

Value

$113.4

PnL

+$8.4

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Seahawks$52.550¢+$15.75

Raiders$52.550¢-$7.35

Pan9X<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$80.92

Value

$68.4

PnL

-$12.52

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

dips.<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$32.5

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$4

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

justaluckydude<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$35

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$6.5

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$13.33

Value

$18.49

PnL

+$5.16

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaiders 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.