Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raiders, while the market favors Seahawks (100%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Raiders (-14.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (91%) · Raiders at 0.5¢ · $239 held · ended Nov 15

Raiders<1¢Seahawks>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 91%

Total Value

$239.35

Combined PnL

-$246.22

Smart Money Entry

3.5¢ → 0.5¢

-86% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaiders at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raiders1%

Seahawks100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks1 trader

Total Value$103.34

Total Shares105

Combined PnL-$1.66

Raiders10 traders

Total Value$136.01

Total Shares10,514

Combined PnL-$244.56

Seahawks — 9%Raiders — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaiders 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Seahawksavg 50¢	$105	$103.34	-$1.66	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Raidersavg 3.7¢	$134.53	$68.62	-$65.92	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Raidersavg 3.7¢	$55	$28.5	-$26.5	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
38 38791873984189CTR	Raidersavg 3.4¢	$160.14	$10.33	-$138.13	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Raidersavg 3.3¢	$11.67	$8.01	-$3.65	20% 71-290 (361)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Raidersavg 3.6¢	$11.48	$7.41	-$4.07	44% 360-455 (815)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Raidersavg 3.1¢	$9.3	$6.9	-$2.4	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raidersavg 3.5¢	$6.91	$3.05	-$2.47	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Raidersavg 3.2¢	$3.2	$2.3	-$0.9	49% 417-440 (857)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100	Raidersavg 3.7¢	$1.26	$0.78	-$0.48	48% 553-589 (1142)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Raidersavg 3¢	$0.15	$0.11	-$0.04	37% 216-374 (590)

NotJump

Seahawks

Invested

$105

Value

$103.34

PnL

-$1.66

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

6512395314597884CTR

Raiders

Invested

$134.53

Value

$68.62

PnL

-$65.92

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$55

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$26.5

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

38791873984189CTR

Raiders

Invested

$160.14

Value

$10.33

PnL

-$138.13

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$11.67

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$3.65

Record

20%

71-290 (361)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$11.48

Value

$7.41

PnL

-$4.07

Record

44%

360-455 (815)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$9.3

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$2.4

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$6.91

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$2.47

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.9

Record

49%

417-440 (857)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

553-589 (1142)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.04

Record

37%

216-374 (590)

Research grade

AvoidRaiders at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaiders 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.