Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (43%) · Raiders at 64¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Seahawks37¢Raiders63¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$388.18

Smart Money Entry

76.9¢ → 63.5¢

-17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks37%

Raiders64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,000

Combined PnL-$84.16

Seahawks4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,735

Combined PnL+$472.34

Raiders — 43%Seahawks — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Raidersavg 77¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	52% 2720-2524 (5244)
NE neymar1CTR	Seahawksavg 22¢	$488.84	$888.8	+$399.96	35% 9-17 (26)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Raidersavg 78¢	$390.23	$300.49	-$89.74	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 20¢	$120.42	$198.57	+$78.15	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 20¢	$75.8	$151.6	+$75.8
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 57¢	$44.62	$46.97	+$2.35
AN Anon455CTR	Seahawksavg 23¢	$1.8K	$111.2	+$30.04	50% 563-572 (1135)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Seahawksavg 45.7¢	$109.6	$83	+$11.9	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 45.7¢	$57.1	$50	-$7.1
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 50¢	$27.5	$33	+$19
38 38791873984189<$100	Raidersavg 70¢	$85.67	$81.25	+$5.58	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 23¢	$46	$80	+$34	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 21.2¢	$23.77	$20.33	+$8.34	50% 2305-2302 (4607)

CUTJALENHURTS

Raiders

Invested

$1,844.92

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2720-2524 (5244)

neymar1CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$488.84

Value

$888.8

PnL

+$399.96

Record

35%

9-17 (26)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Raiders

Invested

$390.23

Value

$300.49

PnL

-$89.74

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$120.42

Value

$198.57

PnL

+$78.15

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Seahawks$75.820¢+$75.8

Raiders$44.6257¢+$2.35

Anon455CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$1,803.16

Value

$111.2

PnL

+$30.04

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

NotJumpARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$109.6

Value

$83

PnL

+$11.9

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Seahawks$57.145.7¢-$7.1

Raiders$27.550¢+$19

38791873984189<$100

Raiders

Invested

$85.67

Value

$81.25

PnL

+$5.58

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$46

Value

$80

PnL

+$34

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$23.77

Value

$20.33

PnL

+$8.34

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.