Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Seahawks, while the market favors Raiders (51%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (64%) · Seahawks at 50¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 15

Seahawks50¢Raiders50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

$71.56

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 49.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Raiders 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks50%

Raiders51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks7 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares20,444

Combined PnL-$83.42

Raiders4 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares15,759

Combined PnL+$154.98

Seahawks — 64%Raiders — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raiders) and the top 1000 (11 on Seahawks) disagree here.

ctrRaiders 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Seahawksavg 51¢	$5.4K	$5.3K	-$52.81	49% 640-677 (1317)
IC ic4cream	Raidersavg 49.8¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$51.29	7% 33-460 (493)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Raidersavg 49¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$91.83	6% 11-177 (188)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Seahawksavg 50.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$15.71	61% 1050-661 (1711)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Seahawksavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$40	60% 18-12 (30)
FO Forecastication2	Raidersavg 50¢	$785.5	$793.36	+$7.86	45% 270-324 (594)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 50¢	$579.5	$585.33	+$5.83	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 50¢	$403.91	$407.94	+$4.04
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 49¢	$175.6	$177.39	+$1.79
GC GC-PCTR	Seahawksavg 51¢	$257.81	$255.28	-$2.53	39% 402-638 (1040)
NM NM-PCTR	Seahawksavg 51¢	$255	$252.5	-$2.5	59% 3805-2621 (6426)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Raidersavg 49¢	$196	$200	+$4	3% 10-371 (381)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 51¢	$51.53	$50.52	-$1.01	33% 106-214 (320)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 51¢	$29.58	$29.29	-$0.29	54% 295-256 (551)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$5,386.38

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$52.81

Record

49%

640-677 (1317)

ic4cream

Raiders

Invested

$3,820.18

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$51.29

Record

33-460 (493)

MAGATheeStallion

Raiders

Invested

$2,999.78

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$91.83

Record

11-177 (188)

darkumbreon88CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$2,366.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$15.71

Record

61%

1050-661 (1711)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$2,039.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$40

Record

60%

18-12 (30)

Forecastication2

Raiders

Invested

$785.5

Value

$793.36

PnL

+$7.86

Record

45%

270-324 (594)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$579.5

Value

$585.33

PnL

+$5.83

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

Both legs:

Seahawks$403.9150¢+$4.04

Raiders$175.649¢+$1.79

GC-PCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$257.81

Value

$255.28

PnL

-$2.53

Record

39%

402-638 (1040)

NM-PCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$255

Value

$252.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

59%

3805-2621 (6426)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Raiders

Invested

$196

Value

$200

PnL

+$4

Record

10-371 (381)

OddstormCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$51.53

Value

$50.52

PnL

-$1.01

Record

33%

106-214 (320)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$29.58

Value

$29.29

PnL

-$0.29

Record

54%

295-256 (551)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Raiders 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raiders) and the top 1000 (11 on Seahawks) disagree here.

ctrRaiders 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.