Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (54%) · Raiders at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Seahawks37¢Raiders63¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$152.03

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 63¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks37%

Raiders63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,623

Combined PnL+$153.05

Seahawks6 traders

Total Value$854.05

Total Shares1,906

Combined PnL-$1.02

Raiders — 54%Seahawks — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

57h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaiders 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Raidersavg 56.3¢	$988.77	$1.1K	+$143.11	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Seahawksavg 46¢	$507.08	$512.59	+$5.51	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Seahawksavg 40¢	$200	$200	+$0	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
GC GC-P	Raidersavg 45¢	$112.5	$113.75	+$1.25	43% 577-770 (1347)
VE Venusian	Raidersavg 45¢	$97.07	$100.31	+$3.24	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
NM NM-P<$100	Raidersavg 45¢	$88.29	$89.27	+$0.98	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 46¢	$74.08	$81.16	+$7.08	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 46¢	$44.16	$45.12	+$0.96
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 44¢	$29.92	$36.04	+$6.12
VeryLucky888<$100	Raidersavg 44¢	$69.83	$73.8	+$3.97	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 55¢	$53.39	$51.94	-$1.46	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
NO NotJumpCTR	Seahawksavg 50¢	$105	$40.5	-$2.5	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 49.7¢	$41.79	$39.48	-$2.31	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Raidersavg 44.5¢	$16.86	$17.6	+$0.75	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 55¢	$9.82	$9.55	-$0.27	47% 507-561 (1068)
GA Gaditima<$100	Raidersavg 49¢	$4.71	$4.47	-$0.24	49% 408-422 (830)

takeormake

Raiders

Invested

$988.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$143.11

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$507.08

Value

$512.59

PnL

+$5.51

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

GC-P

Raiders

Invested

$112.5

Value

$113.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

Venusian

Raiders

Invested

$97.07

Value

$100.31

PnL

+$3.24

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

NM-P<$100

Raiders

Invested

$88.29

Value

$89.27

PnL

+$0.98

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$74.08

Value

$81.16

PnL

+$7.08

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Both legs:

Seahawks$44.1646¢+$0.96

Raiders$29.9244¢+$6.12

VeryLucky888<$100

Raiders

Invested

$69.83

Value

$73.8

PnL

+$3.97

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

suntoriCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$53.39

Value

$51.94

PnL

-$1.46

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

NotJumpCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$105

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$41.79

Value

$39.48

PnL

-$2.31

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Raiders

Invested

$16.86

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$0.75

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$9.82

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$0.27

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

Gaditima<$100

Raiders

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.47

PnL

-$0.24

Record

49%

408-422 (830)

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

57h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaiders 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.