Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (30%) · Raiders at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Seahawks39¢Raiders61¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$94.53

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 61.5¢

+19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks39%

Raiders62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,312

Combined PnL+$139.27

Seahawks7 traders

Total Value$791

Total Shares1,620

Combined PnL-$44.73

Raiders — 30%Seahawks — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Raidersavg 52.9¢	$738.69	$873.33	+$134.64	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Seahawksavg 48¢	$554.1	$505.17	-$48.92	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
AN Anon455	Raidersavg 50¢	$432.01	$432.01	+$0	49% 497-511 (1008)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Seahawksavg 48¢	$148.91	$155.46	+$6.55	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
NO NotJumpCTR	Seahawksavg 47.6¢	$235.85	$68.9	+$4.43	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
RN1ARB<$100	Raidersavg 55¢	$44.96	$46.32	+$1.36	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 55¢	$24.44	$25.56	+$1.11
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 42¢	$20.52	$20.76	+$0.24
PA Pan9X<$100	Raidersavg 43.1¢	$26.42	$31.05	+$4.62	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 44¢	$26.44	$26.14	-$0.3	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 44.8¢	$26.44	$22.15	-$4.29	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 56¢	$12.84	$11	-$1.83	18% 63-282 (345)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 56¢	$2.55	$2.18	-$0.36	48% 4056-4455 (8511)

takeormake

Raiders

Invested

$738.69

Value

$873.33

PnL

+$134.64

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$554.1

Value

$505.17

PnL

-$48.92

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

Anon455

Raiders

Invested

$432.01

Value

$432.01

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$148.91

Value

$155.46

PnL

+$6.55

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

NotJumpCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$235.85

Value

$68.9

PnL

+$4.43

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

RN1ARB<$100

Raiders

Invested

$44.96

Value

$46.32

PnL

+$1.36

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Both legs:

Raiders$24.4455¢+$1.11

Seahawks$20.5242¢+$0.24

Pan9X<$100

Raiders

Invested

$26.42

Value

$31.05

PnL

+$4.62

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

LimousinCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$26.44

Value

$26.14

PnL

-$0.3

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$26.44

Value

$22.15

PnL

-$4.29

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$12.84

Value

$11

PnL

-$1.83

Record

18%

63-282 (345)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.36

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.