Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (100%) · Seahawks at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Seahawks
4
Seahawks 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$3.86
50.1¢ → 61.5¢
+23% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSeahawks at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Seahawksavg 50¢ | $534.92 | $539.29 | +$4.37 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
GA Gaditima | Seahawksavg 50.4¢ | $252.04 | $252.04 | -$0 | 49% 79-83 (162) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Seahawksavg 47¢ | $228.26 | $225.73 | -$2.52 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
| └ Seahawks leg | Seahawksavg 47¢ | $117.5 | $126.02 | +$8.52 | |
| └ Raiders leg | Raidersavg 44.4¢ | $110.76 | $99.71 | -$11.05 | |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Seahawksavg 50¢ | $58.5 | $58.98 | +$0.48 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Seahawksavg 48.7¢ | $12.73 | $11.74 | -$0.99 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
Invested
$534.92
Value
$539.29
PnL
+$4.37
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
Invested
$252.04
Value
$252.04
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
79-83 (162)
Invested
$228.26
Value
$225.73
PnL
-$2.52
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Both legs:
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$58.5
Value
$58.98
PnL
+$0.48
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
Invested
$12.73
Value
$11.74
PnL
-$0.99
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.