Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (56%) · Seahawks at 79¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 15

Seahawks79¢Raiders21¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.8K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 78.5¢

+49% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

9 of 16 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks79%

Raiders22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks9 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares25,225

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Raiders7 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares23,645

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Seahawks — 56%Raiders — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSeahawks 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 53% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Seahawksavg 52.8¢	$12.0K	$17.8K	+$5.8K	29% 32-78 (110)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Raidersavg 47¢	$7.3K	$7.4K	+$154.48	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
RN1ARB<$100	Raidersavg 49.3¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$81.57	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 49.3¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$81.57
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0
AN Anon455CTR	Raidersavg 47.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$4.16	50% 563-572 (1135)
PR primmCTR	Raidersavg 49¢	$1.8K	$771.8	-$986.3	59% 1231-873 (2104)
alpheclabs2	Seahawksavg 49.6¢	$637.36	$668.59	+$31.23	45% 389-480 (869)
JO Johnny2d5CTR	Raidersavg 50.2¢	$1.0K	$428.65	-$571.35	— 3-4 (7)
OM omnibus-076daa	Seahawksavg 45.8¢	$186.86	$320.01	+$133.15	47% 691-793 (1484)
65 6512395314597884	Seahawksavg 51.8¢	$219.23	$219.75	+$0.52	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Seahawksavg 51¢	$154	$200	+$46	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 51¢	$102	$104	+$2
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 26¢	$52	$96	+$44
TA takeormake	Seahawksavg 73.9¢	$162.6	$172.7	+$10.1	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Seahawksavg 49.9¢	$253.73	$131.98	-$10.65	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 49.9¢	$89.74	$93.59	+$3.61
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 51.1¢	$40.86	$38.39	-$14.25
38 38791873984189CTR	Raidersavg 46.7¢	$222.57	$131.95	+$14.68	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Seahawksavg 52¢	$49.05	$74.05	+$25	7% 31-410 (441)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Raidersavg 26¢	$52.87	$61.77	+$13.81	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 46¢	$23.39	$39.91	+$18.38
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 26¢	$26.43	$21.86	-$4.57
LR lryyy<$100	Seahawksavg 49¢	$43.12	$45.76	+$2.64	45% 1041-1259 (2300)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Seahawksavg 52¢	$26.52	$26.52	+$0	50% 714-704 (1418)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raidersavg 47.3¢	$28.74	$11.66	-$6.83	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Seahawksavg 74¢	$4.91	$3.45	-$1.46	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Raidersavg 40¢	$2.15	$2.53	+$0.38	38% 1454-2390 (3844)

lightotunnel35

Seahawks

Invested

$11,958.67

Value

$17.8K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

29%

32-78 (110)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Raiders

Invested

$7,257.12

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$154.48

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

RN1ARB<$100

Raiders

Invested

$4,284.29

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$81.57

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Raiders$3,011.3349.3¢-$81.57

Seahawks$1,272.9652¢+$0

Anon455CTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,122.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$4.16

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

primmCTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,758.1

Value

$771.8

PnL

-$986.3

Record

59%

1231-873 (2104)

alpheclabs2

Seahawks

Invested

$637.36

Value

$668.59

PnL

+$31.23

Record

45%

389-480 (869)

Johnny2d5CTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,000

Value

$428.65

PnL

-$571.35

Record

—

3-4 (7)

omnibus-076daa

Seahawks

Invested

$186.86

Value

$320.01

PnL

+$133.15

Record

47%

691-793 (1484)

6512395314597884

Seahawks

Invested

$219.23

Value

$219.75

PnL

+$0.52

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$154

Value

$200

PnL

+$46

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Both legs:

Invested

$162.6

Value

$172.7

PnL

+$10.1

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

NotJumpARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$253.73

Value

$131.98

PnL

-$10.65

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Seahawks$89.7449.9¢+$3.61

Raiders$40.8651.1¢-$14.25

38791873984189CTR

Raiders

Invested

$222.57

Value

$131.95

PnL

+$14.68

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$49.05

Value

$74.05

PnL

+$25

Record

31-410 (441)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Raiders

Invested

$52.87

Value

$61.77

PnL

+$13.81

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

Both legs:

Seahawks$23.3946¢+$18.38

Raiders$26.4326¢-$4.57

lryyy<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$43.12

Value

$45.76

PnL

+$2.64

Record

45%

1041-1259 (2300)

justaluckydude<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$26.52

Value

$26.52

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$28.74

Value

$11.66

PnL

-$6.83

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$4.91

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$1.46

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.38

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

9 of 16 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSeahawks 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 53% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.