Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (54%) · Raiders at 98¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Seahawks2¢Raiders98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 98.5¢

+36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks2%

Raiders98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders7 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares11,213

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Seahawks6 traders

Total Value$515.62

Total Shares3,247

Combined PnL-$690.54

Raiders — 54%Seahawks — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaiders 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Raidersavg 84¢	$6.7K	$3.7K	$-3.0K	52% 2720-2524 (5244)
RN1ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 26¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$53.98	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 26¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$46.39
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 73¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$7.59
CM cm2897	Raidersavg 43.9¢	$1.4K	$3.1K	+$1.7K	49% 1281-1325 (2606)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Seahawksavg 55.3¢	$283.89	$292.85	+$8.96	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Seahawksavg 44.2¢	$284.97	$177.57	-$107.4	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Seahawksavg 48.5¢	$120.06	$78.18	-$20.38	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 50¢	$27.5	$39.88	+$8.88
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 48.5¢	$67.56	$38.3	-$29.25
LI LightParadox<$100	Raidersavg 48¢	$26.43	$41.57	+$15.14	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
LI LimousinCTR	Seahawksavg 27¢	$392.01	$21.78	-$370.23	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Raidersavg 70¢	$20.43	$18.39	-$2.04	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
38 38791873984189CTR	Seahawksavg 36¢	$608.2	$14.2	-$48.11	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Seahawksavg 29¢	$152.25	$7.88	-$144.38	50% 714-704 (1418)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Raidersavg 42¢	$4.62	$4.68	+$0.06	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
TA takeormake<$100	Raidersavg 42¢	$4.71	$3.37	-$1.35	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Raidersavg 72¢	$1.48	$1.73	+$0.25	37% 165-280 (445)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 36.3¢	$55.9	$1.35	-$29.39	50% 2305-2302 (4607)

CUTJALENHURTS

Raiders

Invested

$6,695.64

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

52%

2720-2524 (5244)

RN1ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$3,600.49

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$53.98

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Seahawks$2,571.2826¢+$46.39

Raiders$1,029.2173¢+$7.59

cm2897

Raiders

Invested

$1,382.48

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

49%

1281-1325 (2606)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$283.89

Value

$292.85

PnL

+$8.96

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

6512395314597884CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$284.97

Value

$177.57

PnL

-$107.4

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

NotJumpARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$120.06

Value

$78.18

PnL

-$20.38

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Raiders$27.550¢+$8.88

Seahawks$67.5648.5¢-$29.25

LightParadox<$100

Raiders

Invested

$26.43

Value

$41.57

PnL

+$15.14

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

LimousinCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$392.01

Value

$21.78

PnL

-$370.23

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

topdogbigboi<$100

Raiders

Invested

$20.43

Value

$18.39

PnL

-$2.04

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

38791873984189CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$608.2

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$48.11

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

justaluckydudeCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$152.25

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$144.38

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Raiders

Invested

$4.62

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

takeormake<$100

Raiders

Invested

$4.71

Value

$3.37

PnL

-$1.35

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

Oddstorm<$100

Raiders

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.25

Record

37%

165-280 (445)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$55.9

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$29.39

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaiders 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.