Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Seahawks, while the market favors Raiders (98%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (58%) · Seahawks at 2.0¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Seahawks2¢Raiders98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 2¢

-97% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSeahawks at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Raiders 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks2%

Raiders98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,048

Combined PnL+$197.58

Seahawks7 traders

Total Value$684.03

Total Shares4,100

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Raiders — 42%Seahawks — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Raidersavg 31¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$159.58	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 36.2¢	$539.37	$660.25	+$120.87	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 31.1¢	$177.37	$450.25	+$272.87
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 36.2¢	$362	$210	-$152
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Seahawksavg 53.6¢	$180.78	$269.6	+$88.82	50% 714-704 (1418)
38 38791873984189CTR	Seahawksavg 38.2¢	$228.83	$131.7	-$97.13	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
SL SlickRick123	Raidersavg 46¢	$79.12	$123.84	+$44.72	38% 521-841 (1362)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Seahawksavg 56¢	$96.25	$122.44	+$26.2	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
GA Gaditima<$100	Raidersavg 47¢	$47	$72	+$25	49% 417-440 (857)
NO NotJumpCTR	Seahawksavg 50¢	$105	$68	+$0	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Seahawksavg 69¢	$2.0K	$63.77	$-1.9K	62% 1080-667 (1747)
VE Venusian<$100	Raidersavg 44¢	$74.28	$41.36	-$32.92	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 46.5¢	$49.43	$17.24	-$7.3	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 68¢	$10.73	$11.28	+$0.55	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
LR lryyy<$100	Raidersavg 48¢	$2.4	$3.6	+$1.2	45% 1041-1259 (2300)

RN1

Raiders

Invested

$1,021.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$159.58

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$539.37

Value

$660.25

PnL

+$120.87

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Both legs:

Raiders$177.3731.1¢+$272.87

Seahawks$36236.2¢-$152

justaluckydudeCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$180.78

Value

$269.6

PnL

+$88.82

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

38791873984189CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$228.83

Value

$131.7

PnL

-$97.13

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

SlickRick123

Raiders

Invested

$79.12

Value

$123.84

PnL

+$44.72

Record

38%

521-841 (1362)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$96.25

Value

$122.44

PnL

+$26.2

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

Gaditima<$100

Raiders

Invested

$47

Value

$72

PnL

+$25

Record

49%

417-440 (857)

NotJumpCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$105

Value

$68

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$1,955.46

Value

$63.77

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

62%

1080-667 (1747)

Venusian<$100

Raiders

Invested

$74.28

Value

$41.36

PnL

-$32.92

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$49.43

Value

$17.24

PnL

-$7.3

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$10.73

Value

$11.28

PnL

+$0.55

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

lryyy<$100

Raiders

Invested

$2.4

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

45%

1041-1259 (2300)

Research grade

AvoidSeahawks at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Raiders 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.