Jets vs. Chiefs: O/U 50.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 77¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 8

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 76.5¢

+41% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares22,516

Combined PnL+$781.95

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares22,320

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888	Underavg 51.2¢	$5.6K	$6.7K	+$1.1K	48% 233-252 (485)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 49.4¢	$10.8K	$5.4K	$-5.1K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
CM cm2897	Underavg 62.5¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$180.38	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 53.4¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$204.36	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$81.97	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$599.96	$697.98	+$98.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$540	$360	-$180
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Underavg 46¢	$220	$306.09	+$86.09	54% 3880-3246 (7126)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 58¢	$282.18	$289.54	+$7.36	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 42¢	$210.86	$208.32	-$2.54	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 42¢	$175.41	$169.22	-$6.19	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 58¢	$64.96	$66.08	+$1.12	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 39.9¢	$29.19	$20.18	-$9.01	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Underavg 59¢	$12.18	$12.18	+$0	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$3.78	+$1.28	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.48	-$0.13	53% 13661-12046 (25707)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$5,583.64

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$10,776.11

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$3,467.68

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$180.38

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$2,818.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$204.36

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,139.96

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$81.97

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Both legs:

Under$599.9655¢+$98.03

Over$54054¢-$180

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Under

Invested

$220

Value

$306.09

PnL

+$86.09

Record

54%

3880-3246 (7126)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$282.18

Value

$289.54

PnL

+$7.36

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$210.86

Value

$208.32

PnL

-$2.54

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$175.41

Value

$169.22

PnL

-$6.19

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$64.96

Value

$66.08

PnL

+$1.12

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.19

Value

$20.18

PnL

-$9.01

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Oddstorm<$100

Under

Invested

$12.18

Value

$12.18

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$1.28

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.