Jets vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 55¢ · $43K held · ends Nov 8

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.1K

Combined PnL

$578.9

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 54.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares22,122

Combined PnL+$666.88

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,954

Combined PnL-$87.98

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2ARB<$100	Underavg 53.8¢	$22.8K	$22.5K	-$167.39	53% 372-326 (698)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.8¢	$14.2K	$14.7K	+$457.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$8.4K	$7.8K	-$625.18
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52.2¢	$8.6K	$9.2K	+$546.49	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$5.7K	$5.2K	-$73.79	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$168.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$94.45
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 53¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$119.88	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$15	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$67.5	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 45¢	$225	$222.5	-$2.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 45¢	$225	$222.5	-$2.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 55¢	$220	$218	-$2	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 51¢	$209.2	$211.26	+$2.05	48% 405-446 (851)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 45¢	$180	$182	+$2	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$25.85	$24.47	-$1.37	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Overavg 50.7¢	$24.87	$23.77	-$1.1	46% 931-1099 (2030)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 52¢	$12.3	$10	+$0.45	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

gmpm2ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$22,834.14

Value

$22.5K

PnL

-$167.39

Record

53%

372-326 (698)

Both legs:

Under$14,229.3653.8¢+$457.79

Over$8,388.5148¢-$625.18

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$8,635.85

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$546.49

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,717.5

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$73.79

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Over$3,962.2446.5¢-$168.24

Under$1,286.5952.1¢+$94.45

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$2,541.51

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$119.88

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,068.74

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$67.5

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$225

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$225

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$220

Value

$218

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$209.2

Value

$211.26

PnL

+$2.05

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$180

Value

$182

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.85

Value

$24.47

PnL

-$1.37

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.87

Value

$23.77

PnL

-$1.1

Record

46%

931-1099 (2030)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$12.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.45

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.