Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (64%) · Chiefs at 76¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 8

Chiefs76¢Jets24¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 64%

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 75.5¢

+29% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs76%

Jets25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs9 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares17,037

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Jets5 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares20,136

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Chiefs — 64%Jets — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Chiefsavg 53.7¢	$3.9K	$4.5K	+$668.62	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
AN Anon455	Chiefsavg 58¢	$2.3K	$3.0K	+$719.36	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Jetsavg 45.8¢	$5.5K	$3.0K	$-2.5K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
DA darkumbreon88	Chiefsavg 68¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$145.52	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 32.1¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$130.49	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
65 6512395314597884	Chiefsavg 54.9¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$168.65	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
BI biying88888CTR	Jetsavg 46.2¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$389.95	48% 233-252 (485)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Chiefsavg 53.6¢	$551.2	$704.25	+$153.05	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
38 38791873984189	Chiefsavg 54¢	$355.86	$471.68	+$120.88	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
TKD44CTR	Jetsavg 53¢	$371	$297.5	-$73.5	49% 182-193 (375)
PA Pan9X<$100	Chiefsavg 55.5¢	$74.86	$87.4	+$24.26	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
LI Limousin<$100	Chiefsavg 44¢	$14.16	$8.14	+$1.91	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jetsavg 31¢	$4.37	$3.38	-$0.99	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Chiefsavg 69¢	$2.76	$3.02	+$0.26	53% 13661-12046 (25707)

RN1

Chiefs

Invested

$3,879.17

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$668.62

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Anon455

Chiefs

Invested

$2,321.69

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$719.36

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Jets

Invested

$5,494.9

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

darkumbreon88

Chiefs

Invested

$2,536.2

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$145.52

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$1,774.66

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$130.49

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

6512395314597884

Chiefs

Invested

$1,496.86

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$168.65

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

biying88888CTR

Jets

Invested

$1,543.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$389.95

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Chiefs

Invested

$551.2

Value

$704.25

PnL

+$153.05

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

38791873984189

Chiefs

Invested

$355.86

Value

$471.68

PnL

+$120.88

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

TKD44CTR

Jets

Invested

$371

Value

$297.5

PnL

-$73.5

Record

49%

182-193 (375)

Pan9X<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$74.86

Value

$87.4

PnL

+$24.26

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Limousin<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$14.16

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$1.91

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$4.37

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$0.99

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

justaluckydude<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$2.76

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.