Spread: Jets (-2.5)
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (100%) · Chiefs at 91¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Chiefs
11
Chiefs 100%
$29.4K
$61.11
81.1¢ → 91¢
+12% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralChiefs at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Chiefsavg 83¢ | $7.2K | $7.2K | -$43.29 | 45% 14412-17706 (32118) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Chiefsavg 79¢ | $6.2K | $6.5K | +$274.46 | 54% 591-497 (1088) |
38 38791873984189 | Chiefsavg 81.7¢ | $5.8K | $5.4K | -$406.08 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
GA Gaditima | Chiefsavg 80¢ | $6.0K | $5.0K | +$150 | 47% 8606-9734 (18340) |
AN Anon455 | Chiefsavg 82¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$20 | 55% 3933-3280 (7213) |
65 6512395314597884 | Chiefsavg 79¢ | $790 | $825 | +$35 | 51% 5614-5443 (11057) |
BO BoomLaLa | Chiefsavg 81.7¢ | $612.5 | $652.5 | +$40 | 53% 14307-12631 (26938) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Chiefsavg 82¢ | $328 | $324 | -$4 | 51% 2075-2021 (4096) |
HI hithitfar | Chiefsavg 79¢ | $150.1 | $156.75 | +$6.65 | 58% 947-692 (1639) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Chiefsavg 82¢ | $105 | $97.37 | -$7.63 | 32% 21107-45346 (66453) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Chiefsavg 81.6¢ | $57.96 | $53.96 | -$4 | 52% 27099-24604 (51703) |
nigiri99Invested
$7,238.12
Value
$7.2K
PnL
-$43.29
Record
45%
14412-17706 (32118)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$6,190.12
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$274.46
Record
54%
591-497 (1088)
Invested
$5,799.8
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$406.08
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$6,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$150
Record
47%
8606-9734 (18340)
Invested
$3,280
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$20
Record
55%
3933-3280 (7213)
Invested
$790
Value
$825
PnL
+$35
Record
51%
5614-5443 (11057)
Invested
$612.5
Value
$652.5
PnL
+$40
Record
53%
14307-12631 (26938)
Invested
$328
Value
$324
PnL
-$4
Record
51%
2075-2021 (4096)
Invested
$150.1
Value
$156.75
PnL
+$6.65
Record
58%
947-692 (1639)
Invested
$105
Value
$97.37
PnL
-$7.63
Record
32%
21107-45346 (66453)
Invested
$57.96
Value
$53.96
PnL
-$4
Record
52%
27099-24604 (51703)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
nigiri99
Chiefs — $7.2K
RollAwayTheDew
Chiefs — $6.5K
38791873984189
Chiefs — $5.4K
Gaditima
Chiefs — $5.0K
Anon455
Chiefs — $3.3K
6512395314597884
Chiefs — $825
BoomLaLa
Chiefs — $652.5
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Chiefs — $324
hithitfar
Chiefs — $156.75
xtxpleasecallme
Chiefs — $97.37