Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 32.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 59¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$423.2

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 58.5¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$996.23

Total Shares1,330

Combined PnL+$226.44

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,325

Combined PnL+$196.76

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$30.09	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$291.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$261.8
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.8K	$1.7K	-$138.37	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$895.98	$1.0K	+$120.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.9¢	$858.34	$678.55	-$258.98
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 50.5¢	$418.64	$609.31	+$190.67	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 42¢	$435.04	$533.44	+$98.4	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 48¢	$281.52	$346.03	+$64.51	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 49¢	$245	$292.5	+$47.5	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 70¢	$213.24	$189.79	-$6.33	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Overavg 50.5¢	$104.43	$152	+$47.56	54% 591-501 (1092)
PW Pwaddler<$100	Underavg 52.7¢	$52.75	$52.5	-$0.25	49% 493-509 (1002)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$27.34	$22.88	-$4.46	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 71¢	$25	$22.25	-$1	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Underavg 29.8¢	$23.24	$8.58	-$14.66	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 29¢	$1.5	$2.75	+$1.25	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,077.9

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$30.09

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Under$1,282.748.1¢+$291.89

Over$1,795.248¢-$261.8

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,817.27

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$138.37

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Both legs:

Under$895.9852¢+$120.61

Over$858.3451.9¢-$258.98

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$418.64

Value

$609.31

PnL

+$190.67

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$435.04

Value

$533.44

PnL

+$98.4

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$281.52

Value

$346.03

PnL

+$64.51

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$245

Value

$292.5

PnL

+$47.5

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$213.24

Value

$189.79

PnL

-$6.33

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Over

Invested

$104.43

Value

$152

PnL

+$47.56

Record

54%

591-501 (1092)

Pwaddler<$100

Under

Invested

$52.75

Value

$52.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

493-509 (1002)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.34

Value

$22.88

PnL

-$4.46

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25

Value

$22.25

PnL

-$1

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Oddstorm<$100

Under

Invested

$23.24

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$14.66

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$1.5

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.