Spread: Eagles (-3.5)

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (67%) · Giants at 56¢ · $76K held · ended Nov 8

Eagles44¢Giants56¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 67%

Total Value

$76.4K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 56.5¢

-22% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Eagles44%

Giants56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants10 traders

Total Value$48.4K

Total Shares74,775

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Eagles5 traders

Total Value$28.0K

Total Shares78,849

Combined PnL+$5.6K

Giants — 67%Eagles — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiants 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGiants 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedGiants 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Giants 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Giantsavg 73¢	$36.1K	$35.3K	-$811.06	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Eaglesavg 27¢	$12.0K	$26.8K	+$5.5K	50% 585-578 (1163)
VeryLucky888	Giantsavg 72¢	$6.6K	$6.5K	-$50	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
38 38791873984189	Giantsavg 72¢	$3.8K	$2.9K	-$800.97	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
BA Bayupati	Giantsavg 73¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$305.74	49% 281-298 (579)
HI hi774cCTR	Eaglesavg 27¢	$937.73	$980.36	+$42.62	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
nigiri99	Giantsavg 73¢	$532.17	$477.5	-$54.67	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Giantsavg 76¢	$380	$282.5	-$97.5	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Giantsavg 72¢	$296	$232.28	-$63.72	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Eaglesavg 25¢	$139.38	$196.03	+$56.65	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
PA Pan9X<$100	Giantsavg 74.4¢	$25.83	$22.61	-$5.18	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Giantsavg 64¢	$14.72	$13	-$1.73	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
GH ghorrock<$100	Giantsavg 76¢	$3.89	$2.89	-$1	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 25¢	$1.97	$2.19	+$0.22	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Eaglesavg 27¢	$1.35	$2.18	+$0.82	51% 5657-5508 (11165)

HomeRunHazard

Giants

Invested

$36,085.1

Value

$35.3K

PnL

-$811.06

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Eagles

Invested

$12,037.85

Value

$26.8K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

50%

585-578 (1163)

VeryLucky888

Giants

Invested

$6,600

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$50

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

38791873984189

Giants

Invested

$3,788.13

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$800.97

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Bayupati

Giants

Invested

$2,975.89

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$305.74

Record

49%

281-298 (579)

hi774cCTR

Eagles

Invested

$937.73

Value

$980.36

PnL

+$42.62

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

nigiri99

Giants

Invested

$532.17

Value

$477.5

PnL

-$54.67

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Giants

Invested

$380

Value

$282.5

PnL

-$97.5

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Giants

Invested

$296

Value

$232.28

PnL

-$63.72

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Eagles

Invested

$139.38

Value

$196.03

PnL

+$56.65

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Pan9X<$100

Giants

Invested

$25.83

Value

$22.61

PnL

-$5.18

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

justaluckydude<$100

Giants

Invested

$14.72

Value

$13

PnL

-$1.73

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

ghorrock<$100

Giants

Invested

$3.89

Value

$2.89

PnL

-$1

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$1.97

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$1.35

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.82

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Giants

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiants 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGiants 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedGiants 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Giants 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.