Spread: Eagles (-1.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (50%) · Giants at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Eagles49¢Giants51¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 50%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$33.61

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 51¢

-15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Eagles49%

Giants51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,663

Combined PnL+$162.41

Giants6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,115

Combined PnL-$196.02

Eagles — 50%Giants — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGiants 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Eaglesavg 38¢	$2.1K	$956.64	+$157.69	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
BI biying88888	Giantsavg 62¢	$869.86	$764.64	-$105.22	48% 233-252 (485)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Giantsavg 62.9¢	$578.23	$500.58	-$77.65	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Eaglesavg 47.9¢	$442.86	$407.25	-$35.6	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Eaglesavg 40.3¢	$194.01	$227.97	+$33.96	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
38 38791873984189	Giantsavg 61¢	$343.59	$187.26	-$22.33	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
JU justaluckydude	Giantsavg 47.5¢	$166.52	$175.21	+$8.69	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Eaglesavg 49.9¢	$61.52	$60.38	-$1.13	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 45.8¢	$82.38	$53.18	+$6.7	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
VE Venusian<$100	Giantsavg 47¢	$53.48	$49.52	-$3.96	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
MA MadridTime<$100	Giantsavg 45¢	$26.73	$31.19	+$4.46	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Eaglesavg 50¢	$26.73	$27.53	+$0.8	57% 17052-13027 (30079)

primmCTR

Eagles

Invested

$2,102.5

Value

$956.64

PnL

+$157.69

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

biying88888

Giants

Invested

$869.86

Value

$764.64

PnL

-$105.22

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Giants

Invested

$578.23

Value

$500.58

PnL

-$77.65

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

6512395314597884CTR

Eagles

Invested

$442.86

Value

$407.25

PnL

-$35.6

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

LightParadoxCTR

Eagles

Invested

$194.01

Value

$227.97

PnL

+$33.96

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

38791873984189

Giants

Invested

$343.59

Value

$187.26

PnL

-$22.33

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

justaluckydude

Giants

Invested

$166.52

Value

$175.21

PnL

+$8.69

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Anon455CTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$61.52

Value

$60.38

PnL

-$1.13

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$82.38

Value

$53.18

PnL

+$6.7

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Venusian<$100

Giants

Invested

$53.48

Value

$49.52

PnL

-$3.96

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

MadridTime<$100

Giants

Invested

$26.73

Value

$31.19

PnL

+$4.46

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$26.73

Value

$27.53

PnL

+$0.8

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Giants

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGiants 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.